Wyndham Championship

AuthorAuthor

Chubbs Scheffler & Zach Beier
August 02, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

The Wyndham Championship began as the Greater Greensboro Open in 1938. Sedgefield Country Club is about to host the tournament for the 40th time in the event's 85-year history. Located just outside Greensboro, N.C., the traditional Donald Ross design will determine who qualifies for the FedEx Cup playoffs. Considering all the conversations on length, bifurcation of rules and the drama that surrounds both, we find ourselves deciding PGA Tour careers on a golf course that barely measures over 7,100 yards. Even though the average winning score is 19 under par over the last decade, very few fans ever complain about the ending of the Wyndham Championship.

One of the top storylines each year starts with the winner. Seven of the last 10 champions have started the tournament with winning odds over +5000 (50-1). Half of the last 10 winners held pre-tournament odds over +10000 What makes Wyndham such a volatile event also makes it incredibly compelling to watch. Anyone in the 156-man field can win.The top 125 players on the FedEx Cup points list used to make it into the playoffs. In one of the many reactions to LIV Golf, the Tour changed the qualifying number to the top 70. Currently that cutoff excludes the likes of major names such as Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Joel Dahmen and 2022 PGA champion Justin Thomas. When you consider the depth of the PGA Tour talent pool, the top 70 does not extend very far.

The weather in Greensboro has been great for growing grass. Temperatures are seasonal in the mid-80s and a little rain is expected during the tournament. We don’t need softer conditions on a course where 20 under par is already the target score. Contenders will need to convert birdie opportunities to win this shootout. Over the past 10 years, the winners have gained more strokes on the greens than is any other major strokes-gained category. Seven of the last 10 Sunday success stories have gained over four strokes with their flatstick.

The perfect complement to a hot putter is a great wedge game in Greensboro. Nearly 50% of approach shots will come with a wedge or scoring iron in hand. Proximity to the hole from 150 yards creates 15-to-20 foot birdie chances. Our winner will need to create 35 or more of those opportunities in order to accumulate 20 under par. With nine par-4s under 450 yards and two reachable par-5s, four or five players will get there.

Most handicappers look directly toward the Detroit Golf Club for a correlation to Sedgefield success. Both are designed by Donald Ross, but past the putting I don’t see the same skill set needed. I’m looking at courses like Colonial and Innisbrook instead, positional courses that require a very specific game plan off the tee, radar-like wedges and a professional putter.

Winners .25 units each

Sam Burns +2500

JT Poston +3500

Denny McCarthy +3500

Billy Horschel +6500

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1864 Saratoga Racecourse, Americas oldest Thoroughbred racetrack, opens its inaugural meet.

1973 Future Baseball HOF 3rd baseman George Brett gets his 1st MLB hit on debut for the Royals.

1982 Ricky Henderson steals his 100th MLB base of the season becoming the first to steal 100 twice in modern era.

PGA Tour added Tiger woods as a sixth player director at request of players.

The Minnesota Wild signed goalie Filip Gustavsson to a three-year $11.25 million contract.

UFC 294 announces light heavyweight title contenders Magomed Ankalev and Johhny Walker to headline the card.

Framber Valdez threw the 16th no-hitter in Houston Astros history in a 2-0 victory over the Cleveland Guardians.

The Houston Astros acquired Justin Verlander from the New York Mets for top rated prospect Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford.

The Baltimore Orioles acquired right-hander Jack Flaherty from the St. Louis Cardinals for infielder Cesar Prieto, Drew Rom and Zack Showalter.

Los Angeles wide receiver Cooper Kupp underwent an MRI on his injured hamstring and will miss a couple weeks.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Angels at Braves

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games on the road

  • Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

  • Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

⚾️ Tigers at Pirates

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

⚾️ Brewers at Nationals

  • Washington is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

⚾️ Guardians at Astros

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games

  • Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

  • Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

⚾️ Padres at Rockies

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games

⚾️ Red Sox at Mariners

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Seattle

  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 13 games when playing on the road against Seattle

⚾️ Phillies at Marlins

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games at home

⚾️ Rays at Yankees

  • Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

  • Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay

⚾️ Orioles at Blue Jays

  • Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto

  • Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games at home

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games

⚾️ Twins at Cardinals

  • St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

⚾️ Reds at Cubs

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs

⚾️ White Sox at Rangers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games

  • Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Chi White Sox

⚾️ Diamondbacks at Giants

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home

⚾️ Athletics at Dodgers

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road

  • LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland

  • LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland 

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Greenbriar Winner - LIV Tour

Injury Report 🏥 via ESPN

BOS (DH) Justin Turner | Day-to-Day - Heel

CLE (1B) Josh Naylor | Day-to-Day - Side tightness

LAD (DH) JD Martinez | Day-to-day - Hamstring

MIL (SP) Wade Miley | 15 Day IL - Elbow, reinstated to start today vs Washington

NYM (CF) Brandon Nimmo | Day-to-day

NYM (RF) Starling Marte | 10 Day IL | Migraines, could be activated today

PHI (C) JT Realmuto | Day-to-day - Hand

STL (2B) Nolan Gorman | Day-to-Day - Back

STL (2B) Brendan Donovan | 10 Day IL - Elbow

TOR (SS) Bo Bichette | Day-to-Day - Knee

TOR (RP) Jordan Romano | 15 Day IL - Lower back inflammation

Picks 🔒91-86-3 -2.68units

Twins -140 | Ryan has been solid this season, while the Cardinals could have a bullpen game with Hudson not pitching deep into games.

Orioles +105 | The Blue Jays are playing some of their worst baseball of the season and have dropped 3 straight games as home favorites. They are 7-22 vs. the AL East this year. The Oriels are 5-0 in Rodriguez last 5 starts and have dominated Toronto this season.

Reds +115 |The Reds have played well on the road with a 31-24 record. Smyly has a 6.65 ERA in July not giving him much confidence going not this game especially since Williamson has not allowed more than 2 runs in 5 straight outings.