Week 4 Key Games

AuthorAuthor

Chubbs Scheffler & Zach Beier
September 22, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

Early season games typically don't determine a team's entire year, but it's undeniable that teams ending up on the wrong side of these matchups face a steeper climb later in the season when wins and losses carry greater significance. Week 4 of the college football schedule presents numerous such opportunities for teams, both highly ranked and those aspiring to climb higher.

For Clemson, the stakes are high as they've already suffered one loss and find themselves under intense scrutiny after missing the playoffs for two consecutive years. They'll be at home, facing off against the Seminoles in a pivotal conference showdown. The Seminoles have gained recognition with a top-five ranking following an impressive victory over LSU, albeit after a shaky win against BC. Clemson's offense has made modest improvements, but this game offers them the chance to take a significant leap forward. Their defense must demonstrate it's a playoff-caliber, especially against FSU's highly skilled and dynamic roster.

Colorado has been a pleasant surprise, starting the season with a perfect 3-0 record, including a win over a ranked TCU team. They boast talented skill players who are among the nation's best. The question is whether they can maintain their momentum. Concerns revolve around protecting quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who has garnered Heisman attention with over 1,200 passing yards and 10 touchdowns already. Despite majority of bettors favoring Colorado to cover, they face a formidable challenge against a talented Oregon team with its own skilled players, especially playing at home.

The college football landscape may be witnessing a potential shift in power, not only within the SEC, where Georgia has already made significant strides, but also nationally, as the mighty Alabama dynasty appears to be receding. However, it's important to remember that Bear Bryant experienced a late-career slump before winning three more national titles. Currently, the Rebels pose a threat to hand Alabama a 2-2 record, boasting a potent offense that has scored 100 second-half points this season. Nonetheless, they are contending with injury concerns surrounding key players like Quinshon Judkins and Tre Harris. Could this be the year Lane Kiffin finally beats Saban?

The Buckeyes face a closely contested matchup, indicating the narrowing gap between these two teams since last year's game, which ended in a 21-10 victory for OSU. While questions remain about quarterback Kyle McCord, Ohio State's other offensive weapons are formidable. They possess the nation's best wide receiver corps, and their running backs can deliver explosive plays both inside and outside. On the other side, Notre Dame relies on Sam Hartman, who has excelled with a 71% completion rate, 10 touchdowns, and no turnovers. Audric Estime has consistently rushed for over 100 yards in three out of four games, averaging more than 8 yards per touch. With exceptional talent all over the field, this game promises a thrilling atmosphere and carries significant playoff implications.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1966 Only 413 show up at a Yankee Stadium game,

1969 San Francisco Giant Willie Mays becomes second player to hit 600 home runs,

September 23rd: Albert Pujols becomes fourth player to hit 700 career HRs.

Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers win their 13th straight regular season game beating the Giants 30-12.

Cowboys star CB Trevon Diggs tears ACL in practice, will likely be out the rest of the season.

NY Giants Saqoun Barkley says he has a high ankle sprain.

Bengal’s Joe Burrow Day-to-day with calf injury.

Ronald Acuna scored his 140th run against the Nationals, this is the most in the majors in 16 years.

The sale of the Ottowa Senators to group led by Michael Andlauer is officially approved.

Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, said in an interview with Fox News that aired Wednesday that he doesn't care about allegations of sportswashing made against his country.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Brewers at Marlins

  • Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

  • Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami

⚾️ Blue Jays at Rays

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

⚾️ Diamondbacks at Yankees

  • Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

  • Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 8 games when playing at home against Arizona

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Arizona

⚾️ Mets at Phillies

  • NY Mets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

  • NY Mets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home

⚾️ Braves at Nationals

  • Atlanta is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Washington

⚾️ Orioles at Guardians

  • Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

  • Cleveland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore

⚾️ White Sox vs Red Sox

  • Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston

  • Chi White Sox is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games

⚾️ Mariners at Rangers

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas

  • Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

  • Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

⚾️ Tigers vs Athletics

  • Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

  • Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games

⚾️ Giants at Dodgers

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

57% of bets and 79% of money is on TB -1.5 (+135)

58% of bets and 80% of money is on MIL -1.5 (+120)

66% of bets and 88% of money is on BAL -1.5 (+160)

55% of bets and 77% of money is on OVER 9.5 SEA at TEX

40% of bets and 65% of money is on TEX -1.5 (+150)

35% of bets and 60% of money is on UNDER 9 STL at SD

🏈 NCAAF

19% of bets and 41% of money is on PUR +205

28% of bets and 60% of money is on UNDER 45.5 AF at SJSU

9.23.23

21% of bets and 50% of money is on CIN +15

23% of bets and 52% of money is on UNDER 53.5 #16 OU at CIN

45% of bets and 70% of money is on #15 OLE MISS +210

17% of bets and 46% of money is on TEM +23.5

24% of bets and 89% of money is on UNDER 45.5 #20 MIA at TEM

24% of bets and 56% of money is on UCLA +190

28% of bets and 48% of money is on UNDER 52.5 #22 UCLA at #11 UTAH

13% of bets and 72% of money is on UNDER 48.5 #3 TEXAS at BAYLOR

13% of bets and 40% of money is on CAL +20.5

🏈 NFL

45% of bets and 69% of money is on UNDER 36.5 NE at NYJ

36% of bets and 54% of money is on IND +8

45% of bets and 75% of money is on UNDER 39.5 TEN at CLE

42% of bets and 69% of money is on HOU +8.5

24% of bets and 52% of money is on UNDER 43.5 BUF at WSH

29% of bets and 47% of money is on ATL +3

40% of bets and 62% of money is on UNDER 42 CAR at SEA

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Injury Report 🏥 via ESPN

ARI (S) Budda Baker | IR

ATL (RB) Cordarrelle Patterson | Questionable - Thigh

BAL (CB) Marlon Humphrey | Questionable - Foot

BAL (RB) Justice Hill | Questionable - Toe

BAL (WR) OBJ | Questionable - Ankle

BUF (TE) Dawson Knox | Questionable - Back

CAR (QB) Brice Young | Doubtful - Ankle

CIN (QB) Joe Burrow | Questionable - Calf

CLE (WR) Amari Cooper | Questionable - Groin/shoulder

CLE (RB) Nick Chubb | IR

DAL (C) Tyler Biadasz | Questionable - Suffered hamstring injury at practice yesterday

DAL (CB) Trevon Diggs | Out - ACL

DEN (S) Justin Simmons | Questionable - Hip

DET (S) CJ Gardner Johnson | IR

DET (RB) David Montgomery | Questionable - Thigh

GB (WR) Christian Watson | Questionable - Hamstring

HOU (CB) Derick Stingley Jr | Out - Hamstring, expected to miss several weeks and go on IR

HOU (CB) Tavierre Thomas | Doubtful - Hand, expected to miss Sunday’s game

HOU (LT) Laremy Tunsil | Probable - Knee, was fully active at practice Wednesday

IND (QB) Anthony Richardson | Questionable - Concussion

IND (C) Ryan Kelly | Questionable - Concussion

JAX (WR) Zay Jones | Questionable - Knee

KC (LB) Nick Bolton | Questionable - Ankle

KC (WR) Kadarius Toney | Questionable - Toe

LV (WR) Jakobi Meyers | Probable - Concussion

LAC (DE) Joey Bosa | Questionable - Hamstring

LAC (RB) Austin Ekeler | Questionable - Ankle

MIA (WR) Jalen Waddle | Questionable - Concussion

NE (CB) Marcus Jones | Out - Shoulder, expected to be put on IR

NO (RB) Jamaal Williams | Questionable - Hamstring

PIT (WR) Dionte Johnson | IR - Hamstring

SEA (S) Quandre Diggs | Questionable - Hamstring

SEA (TE) Will Dissly | Questionable - Shoulder

SEA (WR) DK Metcalf | Questionable - Ribs

WSH (TE) Logan Thomas | Questionable - Concussion

Weekend Picks 🔒

Oregon -21 | The Colorado Buffaloes have certainly been a surprise, showcasing an impressive offensive performance but their defensive has been awful, allowing their opponents to score at least 35 points in two out of three games played. Last week, their defense gave up a total of 499 yards against Colorado State, a team that is projected to rank in the lower half of the MWC. Oregon has a secondary filled with experienced defensive players who are likely to pose a more significant challenge to Colorado than Colorado State did.

South Carolina -6 | The Air Raid offense that was successful under the late Mike Leach has disappeared under Zach Arnett as he has attempted to implement a more balanced, pro-style offensive approach, but the results have been somewhat inconsistent this season. Although the running game, led by Marks, has shown promise, it's evident that Rogers has encountered challenges in producing the same level of passing plays as he did in the previous couple of seasons.

Clemson +2 | There's little doubt Clemson's offense is a work in progress in Riley's first year. In the opener against Duke, the Tigers recorded 422 yards over 83 plays but only scored seven points. However, the production was better against Charleston Southern and FAU.The Tigers are tough to beat at home and the crowd should give them an advantage in a tight game.

Commanders +6.5 | The Bills haven't had the toughest schedule through two games, playing the Jets and Raiders, and yet they've looked shaky up to this point and have had issues stopping the run. Many weren't high on the Washington Commanders entering the season, but here they are with a 2-0 record, which includes a comeback win last week over the Broncos on the road. The Commanders have the seventh-best total offense, and the defense will only improve as Chase Young gets more reps under his belt. Lots of points here. Give me the Commanders and the free touchdown.

Texans +9 | CJ Stroud has a boost of confidence after getting his first NFL touchdowns and the Texans have a lot of good energy around the team. But Trevor Lawrence will be charged up at home seeking redemption for a Week 2 loss where the Jaguars failed to reach the end zone. Jaguars should win but Texans should be able to keep it close.

Patriots -2.5 | The Jets are just a miserable team without Rodgers and im going to fade them until they show me proof they have a sort of sign of being a professional football team.