UFC Fight Night 238

AuthorAuthor

Zach Beier & Chubbs Scheffler
March 01, 2024

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for a one-week pitstop this Saturday with a card that has faced its fair share of challenges. Originally planned as the company's debut in Saudia Arabia, UFC Fight Night 238 was ultimately moved back to the United States. While the main event featuring Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev may lack the star power, the rest of the main card promises an exciting viewing experience.

The flyweight division will take center stage as Muhammad Mokaev looks to make his way to title contention against Alex Perez, while Steve Erceg aims to prove his breakout 2023 season was no fluke against Matt Schnell. The co-main event between Vitor Petrino and Tyson Pedro is expected to bring the violence, and a bantamweight showcase with Umar Nurmagomedov adds to the excitement of the five-fight lineup.

Although heavyweights are once again in the headline spot by default, Gaziev has the potential for a breakout performance. With a quick win on Dana White's Contender Series in September, Gaziev has shown a history of finishing fights early. Despite a split decision victory in 2022 raising some concerns about his stamina, his impressive UFC debut suggests otherwise. At 34 years old, Gaziev is eager to make a mark in the heavyweight division against Rozenstruik, who has proven to be a gatekeeper to the elite of the division.

Rozenstruik, also known as "Bigi Boy," had a breakout year in 2019 with four straight wins, including a knockout of Alistair Overeem. His patient counter-striking style has been both his strength and weakness, leading to wins and losses with the top contenders. The fight against Gaziev is a coinflip that highlights Rozenstruik's dynamic style. While Gaziev's wrestling may pose a threat on the ground, Rozenstruik's striking power could prove overwhelming. The prediction is a first-round knockout victory for Rozenstruik in what should be an explosive matchup.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1966 Former World Heavyweight boxing champion Joe Louis retires with a 66-3-0 record including 52 KO’s,

1969 NY Yankee Micky Mantle announces retirement due to knee injuries,

1998 Miami’s Pat riley becomes 5th head coach to record 900 NBA career wins.

The Saints are planning on releasing top safety Marcus Maye; Maye signed a 3-year $28.5 million contract in 2022.

QB Michael Penix Jr. says he is ready to be a starting NFL quarterback after evaluations and questions about his health have been out behind him.

Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison has been informed he will be released after 5 seasons on their roster.

Shohei Ohtani announced his low-key marriage on Thursday shocking everyone in Los Angeles’ organization.

Paul Skenes pitches 1 inning in his MLB debut throwing 10 pitches and striking out Orioles top prospect Jackson Holliday.

The average MLB salary rose 7.1% to $4.5 million last season.

The Atlanta Hawks waive Patty Mills after his 15th season in the league.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

🏀 Hornets at 76ers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Charlotte's last 7 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games on the road.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games against Charlotte.

🏀 Cavaliers at Pistons

  • Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road.

  • Detroit is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 7 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games against Cleveland.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home.

🏀 Mavericks at Celtics

  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Dallas' last 18 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 23 of Boston’s last 19 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 8 games against Dallas.

🏀 Pacers at Pelicans

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indiana's last 17 games on the road.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans' last 5 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games against Indiana.

🏀 Kings at Timberwolves

  • Sacramento are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Sacramento's last 12 games.

  • Sacramento are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Minnesota.

  • Minnesota are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games. 

🏀 Wizards at Clippers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 18 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Clippers' last 8 games.

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

🏀 NBA

38% of bets and 68% of money is on DET +9

35% of bets and 56% of money is on CHA +11

52% of bets and 81% of money is on UNDER 214 CHA at PHI

23% of bets and 42% of money is on DAL +320

42% of bets and 73% of money is on NO -5

51% of bets and 83% of money is on OVER 239 IND at NO

56% of bets and 79% of money is on LAC -15.5

23% of bets and 40% of money is on OVER 238.5 WSH at LAC

🎓🏀 NCAAB

53% of bets and 74% of money is on UNDER 136.5 #21 DAY at LC

30% of bets and 48% of money is on UNDER 137 AF at #22 USU

🏒 NHL

36% of bets and 73% of money is on PHI -1.5

59% of bets and 88% of money is on PHI -145

34% of bets and 67% of money is on ANA +1.5

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Weekend Picks 🔒

Bulls +4 and +152 | The Bulls have played the Bucks close this season taking both games to overtime. They can exploit the Bucks mid-range D and continue to out rebound them, plus the game is in Chicago.

Grizzlies -115 | The Blazers are 6-22 on the road this season. Memphis doesn’t have the best home record either but they should have an edge here as they have been competitive lately keeping the games close.

La Lafayette -7 | Louisiana Lafayette’s defense is what helps them win games allowing 71.6 ppg with one of the best perimeter defenses holding opponents to 27.7% (3rd best). Southern Miss is missing Donovan Ivory who is one of their top scorers. Give me ULL at home here.

UFC:

Zahibi +550 .5U

Rozenstruik +136 .5U