Nuggets vs Heat NBA Finals

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Developing Stories 📰

The 2023 NBA Finals matchup is finally set, with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the steady-rocking Nuggets taking on Jimmy Butler and his fierce underdog Heat. Denver will host Game 1 at Ball Arena on Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), with the West's No. 1 seed currently favored by a whopping 8.5 points. These teams took opposite paths to get to this point. Miami had to play two games in the NBA Play-In Tournament just to get into the playoffs after defeating the Bulls. Erik Spoelstra's then took care of the banged-up Bucks in five, the Knicks in six, and just days ago won Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals against Jayson Tatum and the Celtics. Denver served up the gentleman's sweep to the Wolves team, then beat the Chris Paul-less Suns in six before sweeping LeBron James and the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

Oddsmakers clearly aren't worried about Jokic and company suffering from any rust, as the well-rested Nuggets are hovering close to double-digit Game 1 favorites. This comes as no surprise considering Denver has gone an NBA-best 42-7 at Ball Arena since the start of the 2022-23 NBA season. Only the Warriors maintained a better home cover rate than the Nugs at 62.5 percent. But the Heat are no strangers to the underdog role. Miami has been listed as an underdog in 14 of its 18 games during the playoffs, coming out with a 9-5 record straight up and an 11-3 record against the spread. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Denver has gone a perfect 6-0 against the Heat. Dating back to '17, the Nuggets are 12-2 against Miami. Across the 10 meetings in which these two teams have met since January '19, Denver has gone 9-1 straight up and against the spread.

We just don't see a scenario where the Nuggets, a dominant home team with 10 days of rest, come out and lay an egg in Game 1. Denver went an NBA-best 18-4 SU and 14-7-1 ATS with rest advantage and dominated at Ball Arena all year. With top Heat rebounder Adebayo set to battle Jokic down low all series, it will be imperative for Butler to continue to crash the boards for Miami to have any shot this series. The Joker regularly pulls down double-digit boards against the Heat, so we have Butler clearing eight rebounds for the fifth time in his past seven postseason starts.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 2008 Usain Bolt breaks the world record in the 100m sprint at 9.72 seconds.

2018 LeBron James scores 51 points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the first 50- point game in the Finals since Michael Jordan in 1993.

The New York Knicks will not extend the contract of GM Scott Perry.

The Miami Heat stopped the Celtics in G7, to become second No. 8 seed to make The NBA Finals.

Team USA will play an exhibition game against Puerto Rico on August 7th in Las Vegas to start its preparations for the FIBA World Cup later this summer.

The Jaguars are taking it easy with WR Calvin Ridley in his return to football. Pederson said he’s limiting Ridleys reps but will clear him for full participation once training camp begins.

Texas is hiring former Wisconsin and Pitt coach Paul Chryst as a special assistant to head coach Steve Sarkisian.

The Stanley Cup Finals is set with the Florida Panthers and the Las Vegas Golden Knights set to drop first puck on June 3rd.

Pat McAfee set to make around $17 million with ESPN move.

Golden State Warriors GM Bob Myers will step down from the organization after 12 years and four NBA Championships.

Thiago Seyboth Wild upsets Russian star Daniil Medvedev in first round at French Open.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Rangers at Tigers

  • Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

  • Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Texas

⚾️ Angels at White Sox

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games 

⚾️ Rays at Cubs

  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road

  • Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

  • Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

⚾️ Guardians at Orioles

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

  • Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland

⚾️ Braves at Athletics

  • Atlanta is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland

  • Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Oakland

  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 13 games

  • Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

⚾️ Pirates at Giants

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road

⚾️ Nationals at Dodgers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Washington's last 21 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

  • Washington is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road

  • LA Dodgers is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

  • LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

⚾️ Reds at Red Sox

  • Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

⚾️ Phillies at Mets

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets

  • Philadelphia is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games

  • NY Mets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

  • NY Mets is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

⚾️ Twins at Astros

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games

  • Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

  • Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

  • Houston is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Minnesota

⚾️ Rockies at Diamondbacks

  • Arizona is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

  • Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado

⚾️ Yankees at Mariners

  • NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

  • NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

37% of bets and 74% of money is on CWS -1.5 (+145)

42% of bets and 69% of money is on CWS -135

34% of bets and 62% of money is on CLE -1.5 (+135)

30% of bets and 66% of money is on UNDER 8 CLE at BAL

55% of bets and 79% of money is on OVER 9.5 MIL at TOR

34% of bets and 53% of money is on CIN +150

58% of bets and 89% of money is on OVER 8.5 PHI at NYM

25% of bets and 46% of money is on SEA -1.5 (+140)

🏀 NBA

58% of bets and 82% of money is on OVER 219 MIA at DEN

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Memorial Tournament Winner

Injury Report 🏥 via ESPN

MIA (PG) Tyler Herro | Out - Hand, looking to return game 3

BAL (CF) Cedric Mullins | 10 Day IL - Right groin strain

BOS (RF) Alex Verdugo | Questionable - Illness

CIN (RF) Henry Ramos | 10 Day IL - No

CIN (CF) TJ Friedl | Questionable - Hamstring

CIN (CF) Nick Senzel | Probable - Knee

CIN (RF) Wil Myers | 10 Day IL - Shoulder sprain

DET (CF) Riley Green | 10 Day IL

MIL (SS) Willy Adames | 7 Day IL - Concussion

MIL (3B) Luis Urias | 60 Day IL - Likely to return next week

MIL (DH) Jesse Winker | 10 Day IL - Cervical strain

SD (RP) Luis Garcia | 15 Day IL - no

SD (3B) Manny Machado | 10 Day IL - Hand, went through full pregame workout on Tuesday

TEX (SP) Jacob DeGrom | 15 Day IL - Elbow, will throw another bullpen session today

Picks 🔒

Nuggets -8 | This is a tough spot for Miami. They played 7 long games that ended in Boston and then got on a plane for Denver. The Nuggets are 8-0 at home this year in the playoffs. The Nuggets should win this game and should get things rolling to cover the spread as well.

Rangers -1.5 +105 | The Rangers have won 8 out of their last 10 games and 7 of their last 10 road games. They have the highest scoring in the league and have scored 24 runs in their last four road games. The Tigers pitching has been their biggest weakness giving up 5+ in their last four homes games.