NCAAF Week 9

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

LSU dominated Arkansas with a strong start, finishing the game with a 393-278 edge in total yards. The Tigers' defense held the Razorbacks to a mere 38 rushing yards on 19 carries and won the turnover battle 3-0, allowing them to control the game effectively. They also excelled in time of possession, keeping the ball for nearly 18 minutes longer than Arkansas. Freshman running back Caden Durham was a standout performer, carrying the ball 21 times for 101 yards and scoring three touchdowns. After the game, LSU head coach Brian Kelly praised the team's ability to control the line of scrimmage and close out the game with a strong drive. The Tigers are led by junior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who has made a significant impact this season as a first-year starter. Nussmeier has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,222 yards, with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions, along with two rushing touchdowns. His primary receiving targets include senior wide receiver Kyren Lacy, with 36 receptions for 512 yards and six touchdowns, and sophomore Aaron Anderson, who has 33 catches for 488 yards and three touchdowns. Additionally, Durham leads the rushing attack, with 62 carries for 382 yards and six touchdowns.

As a team, LSU averages 34.1 points per game, ranking them 29th in the nation, and totals 450.7 yards per game, placing them 25th. Their passing game is particularly strong, ranking 4th in the nation with an average of 322.4 passing yards per game, while the rushing game ranks 96th with 128.3 yards per game. The Tigers have been efficient on offense, allowing only two sacks this season and committing seven turnovers. They have converted 50.6 percent of their third-down attempts, ranking 8th, and scored on 82.1 percent of their trips into the red zone, placing them 85th.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M also had a successful outing last week, securing a hard-fought road victory against Mississippi State. This win marked their sixth consecutive victory, demonstrating their resilience in a tough conference. Running back Le'Veon Moss played a crucial role, scoring two touchdowns, while quarterback Connor Weigman passed for another touchdown, showcasing the Aggies' balanced offensive attack. Coach Mike Elko noted the difficulty of winning on the road in their league, praising his team for battling through adversity. Weigman returned from a shoulder injury two games ago and has completed 61.5 percent of his passing attempts this season. However, he has thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three). His top receiving targets include junior wide receiver Noah Thomas, who has 21 receptions for 289 yards and three touchdowns, and Cyrus Allen, with 14 receptions for 220 yards and one touchdown. Moss leads the Texas A&M rushing game, carrying the ball 105 times for 674 yards and eight touchdowns.

The Aggies average 31.4 points per game, which ranks them 46th in the nation, and total 404.7 yards per game, placing them 57th. Their passing game has struggled at times, averaging 186.1 yards per game, which ranks 107th, while their rushing game is much stronger, averaging 218.6 yards per game, ranking 12th. Texas A&M has allowed seven sacks this season and committed five turnovers. On third downs, they have converted 43.7 percent of their attempts, ranking 34th, and they have scored on 100 percent of their red zone trips, placing them first in the nation.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1884 1^st “World Championship baseball series, Olo Grounds, NYC the Providence Grays beat the NY Meets 12-2 in 6 innings for 3 game sweep.

1990 Evander Holyfield KOs Buster Douglas in 3 rounds for heavyweight boxing title.

Jayden Daniels was limited in practice but there still a chance he plays Sunday vs. the Bears.

Tua Tagoviola clears the concussion protocol and will start Sunday vs. the Cardinals.

Panthers WRs Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson are both ruled out Sunday vs. the Broncos.

NC State QB Grayson McCall is retiring from football after his head injury earlier this month.

Missouri lead rusher Nate Noel is ruled out Saturday due to an ankle injury, QB Brady Cook is also doubtful due to an ankle injury.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Yankees at Dodgers

• NY Yankees is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road

• NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games at home

🏈 Colts at Texans

• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

🏈 Packers at Jaguars

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games

🏈 Cardinals at Dolphins

• Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road 

🏈 Falcons at Bucs

• Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games

🏈 Eagles at BEngels

• Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

🏈 Saints at Chargers

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers

🏈 Bills at Seahawks

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

🏀 NBA

61% of bets and 76% of money is in NYK -4.5

36% of bets and 67% of money is on HOU -4

28% of bets and 47% of money is on CHI +9.5

🎓🏈 NCAAF

25% of bets and 40% of money is on ND -13.5

27% of bets and 42% of money is on under 54.5 WSH at IND

59% of bets and 80% of money is on MISS -20

16% of bets and 42% of money is on UCF -2.5

13% of bets and 43% of money is on UCF -140

44% of bets and 71% of money is on BAMA -16.5

35% of bets and 53% of money is on UNDER 51.5 MIZZ at BAMA

25% of bets and 51% of money is on WISC +6

🏈 NFL

30% of bets and 59% of money is on UNDER 45 DET at TEN

18% of bets and 37% of money is on CLE +8

24% of bets and 44% of money is on UNDER 45 BAL at CLE

48% of bets and 76% of money is on UNDER 49.5 GB at JAX

23% of bets and 40% of money is on IND +5

50% of bets and 47% of money is on UNDER 47 IND at HOU

43% of bets and 66% of money is on MIA -4.5

22% of bets and 61% of money is on UNDER 46 BUF at SEA

51% of bets and 73% of money is on OVER 41.5 NO at LAC

38% of bets and 74% of money is on UNDER 47 SF at DAL

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Weekend Picks 🔒

10/25/24

Yankees +105 | The Yankees are a good pick for the first game of the series on the road, aiming to take the home-field advantage. New York has the edge in pitching, with Cole being more reliable than Flaherty, who has struggled with a high 7.04 ERA in his 3 postseason starts so far.

10/26/24

Notre Dame -13.5 | Navy has had a strong season but now faces a tougher challenge against Notre Dame whose defense is far better than previous opponents. Notre Dame, led by defensive coach Marcus Freeman, specializes in stopping the run and ranks 13th against passing plays, which limits Navy's big-play potential. The Irish defense has been highly effective allowing just 11.9 points per game and only giving up more than 16 points once this season.

UCF -2.5 | The BYU Cougars have been impressive this season and remain undefeated so far. However they have only faced two teams with winning records and UCF is motivated to hand them their first loss. UCF’s strong offense with its third-ranked rushing game will challenge BYU’s weaker run defense which is allowing an average of 141 rushing yards per game.

Oklahoma State +7 | Baylor has lost their last 8 games at home against conference opponents. Ok State has covered 13 out of the last 14 spreads as a road underdog in October. Ride the trend here.

Vanderbilt +18 | Texas just had a rough loss to Georgia where they trailed 23-0 at halftime and looked out of sync. Some bettors may expect Texas to bounce back against a struggling Vanderbilt team, but that’s unlikely. Vanderbilt is much improved this year, with strong performances against Alabama, Kentucky, and a close overtime loss to Missouri. Led by dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt has the energy and talent to keep this game competitive and keep the game close.

LSU +1 | This game will depend on the coaching and quarterback play. While Mike Elko has done well in his first season, Brian Kelly has a proven record as a road underdog, going 23-11 against the spread. I have more confidence in LSU's Garrett Nussmeier than Texas A&M's Connor Weigman, who has struggled recently. With the spread narrowing from 3.5 to 2.5, I see good value in betting on LSU to win outright.

10/27/24

Lions -11.5 | The Lions are on a four-game win streak while the Titans have lost five of their last six games. Detroit’s strong offense will have the edge against a weakened Titans defense that struggled with the pass last game and allowed over 300 yards. The Lions also have a top running game and should be able to run effectively, while Tennessee’s offense will struggle against Detroit’s seventh-ranked run defense. Expect Detroit to pressure the Titans heavily, likely forcing mistakes, so take the Lions to cover the spread.

Buffalo -3 | The Bills have been strong on the road in recent years, going 22-13, and they’ve been even better against NFC teams with a 19-5 record over the past five seasons. This season, Seattle is just 2-2 at home with a -38 point differential, and the Bills’ offense should be able to capitalize through both passing and running plays. With the Seahawks facing injuries in their receiving group and the Bills ranking fifth against the pass, Buffalo is in a good position to secure a road win and extend their lead in the AFC East.

Arizona +4.5 | Arizona will secure both the win and the cover in this game, relying on their offense to lead the way. Their strong running game gives them a clear advantage, especially on the road, allowing them to control the game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins may struggle offensively due to rust, with their star players needing more time to find their rhythm together. Arizona's defense, which showed improvement last week, should also perform well again on Sunday.