NCAAF Week 5

AuthorAuthor

Zach Beier & Chubbs Scheffler
September 29, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

Week 5 promises another lineup of exciting matchups, featuring four games between ranked teams according to the Coaches Poll. While it's not as packed as the previous Saturday, there's still plenty for discerning fans to look forward to.

 

No. 10 Utah at No. 21 Oregon State

The action kicks off early with a Friday night showdown in the Pac-12, setting the stage for a Saturday filled with teams from traditional basketball powerhouses aiming to make their mark on the football field. The Pac-12 action gets an early start, with the Beavers seeking redemption after a hard-fought road loss to Washington State. However, hosting the Utes is no easy task. Utah's DE Jonah Elliss and the defense have recorded an impressive 27 tackles behind the line of scrimmage in just four games. Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei, although adept at avoiding sacks, can be prone to interceptions under pressure. The availability of Utah QB Cam Rising remains uncertain, which means Oregon State's defense must be prepared for either Rising or Nate Johnson. Utah's conservative offensive approach last week could change if the Beavers start strong and force them to open up their playbook.

 

No. 13 Notre Dame at No. 16 Duke

For Notre Dame, this date might not have initially stood out on their calendar, but it has now become a must-win game following their last-second loss to Ohio State. The Blue Devils, fresh off their season-opening victory against Clemson, are eager to seize this major opportunity in the spotlight . Both ACC enthusiasts and regular followers are familiar with the quarterbacks in this game. Duke's Riley Leonard made a splash on the national stage in Week 1, boasting an arsenal that includes RB Jordan Waters and WR Jalon Calhoun. However, he'll need to steer clear of Notre Dame's formidable DE, Javontae Jean-Baptiste. On the other side, Sam Hartman aims to turn up the Notre Dame offense with the help of RB Audric Estime, but he'll have to contend with the disruptive Blue Devils' D-line.

 

No. 24 Kansas at No. 5 Texas

The Longhorns coming off a significant victory at Alabama and a solid start in the Big 12, aim to maintain their early-season momentum. However, the Jayhawks have become a challenging opponent on the field under the leadership of coach Lance Leipold. Texas QB Quinn Ewers has been exceptional, connecting well with TE Ja'Tavion Sanders and WR Xavier Worthy, but they'll face a stout KU secondary led by DB Kenny Logan. Jayhawks QB Jalon Daniels, back at full speed after battling injuries, pairs up with RB Devin Neal and will be closely watched by Longhorns LB Jaylan Ford. While KU's victory against Brigham Young may hint at their potential, it's uncertain if they're ready to compete with the Big 12's elite this season.

No. 12 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss

Ole Miss, coming off a tough loss at Alabama and they must quickly rebound to keep their conference championship hopes alive. LSU, after surviving a shootout with Arkansas, still has their own title aspirations. The Tigers' QB Jayden Daniels and WR Malik Nabers have formed a potent duo, while Rebels' QB Jaxson Dart, known for his mobility, might exploit LSU's defensive vulnerabilities. It's unlikely to be a tension-free game, given LSU's penchant for late-game drama, but the outcome remains uncertain if the Rebels face offensive struggles as they did against Alabama last week.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1880 1st pro baseball game at Polo Grounds.

1954 Willie Mays famous over the shoulder catch at 460’ during the gam one of the World Series.

1963 Cardinals celebrate Stan Musial in St. Lousi for his final game where he got hits 3,629 & 3,630.

Europe sweeps foursomes for first time in Ryder Cup history.

The Lions change the narrative in NFC North with road blowout of Packers at Lambeau Field.

The Jacksonville Jaguars WR Zay Jones out of Sundays game against the Atlanta Falcons.

The Atlanta Braves clinched home-field advantage throughout the postseason after beating the Cubs 5-3 yesterday.

The Baltimore Orioles clinch AL East with 100th win of the season.

Mariners gain ground with a big win over the Rangers with a 9th inning comeback walk off hit by JP Crawford.

Texas A&M Aggies conner Weigman out for season with a foot injury.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Guardians at Tigers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

  • Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland

⚾️ Rays at Blue Jays

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games at home 

⚾️ Nationals at Braves

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

  • Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

⚾️ Padres at White Sox

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games

  • San Diego is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games

⚾️ Brewers at Cubs

  • Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

⚾️ Reds at Cardinals

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games

⚾️ Rangers at Mariners

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Texas

⚾️ Dodgers at Giants

  • LA Dodgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

  • LA Dodgers is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home

🎓🏈 #6 PSU at NW

  • Penn State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

  • Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games at home

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games

🎓🏈 #22 UF at UK

  • Florida is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Kentucky

  • Florida is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Kentucky

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kentucky's last 9 games at home

  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kentucky's last 13 games

🎓🏈 #8 USC at COLO

  • Southern California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado

  • Southern California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado

  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Colorado's last 15 games

  • Colorado is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

🎓🏈 #2 MICH at NEB

  • Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

  • Michigan is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Nebraska's last 7 games at home

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Nebraska's last 9 games

🎓🏈 ISU at #14 OU

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa State's last 7 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Iowa State's last 12 games

  • Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

  • Oklahoma is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games when playing Iowa State

🎓🏈 #12 BAMA at MSST

  • Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State

  • Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State's last 5 games when playing Alabama

  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Mississippi State's last 11 games when playing at home against Alabama

🏈 Falcons at Jaguars

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing Atlanta

🏈 Steelers at Texans

  • Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

  • Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

  • Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

  • Houston is 4-17-1 SU in its last 22 games

🏈 Buccaneers at Saints

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home

🏈 Bengals at Titans

  • Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

  • Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 14 games at home

🏈 Vikings at Panthers

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Minnesota

  • Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

🏈 Raiders at Chargers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 8 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games

🏈 Chiefs at Jets

  • Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

  • Kansas City is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 8 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Jets's last 7 games at home

🏈 Seahawks at Giants

  • Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants

  • Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Seattle

  • The total has gone UNDER in 16 of NY Giants's last 22 games at home

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

10% of bets and 32% of money is on WSH +240

59% of bets and 79% of money is on CHC -105

43% of bets and 65% of money is on OVER 8 CHC at MIL

37% of bets and 64% of money is on OVER 11.5 MIN at COL

56% of bets and 78% of money is on OVER 9 CIN at STL

21% of bets and 53% of money is on OAK +120

50% of bets and 70% of money is on OVER 8.5 OAK at LAA

31% of bets and 53% of money is on OVER 9.5 HOU at ARI

🎓🏈 NCAAF

26% of bets and 49% of money is on UNDER 44.5 #22 UF at UK

20% of bets and 70% of money is on UNDER 45.5 #1 UGA at AUB

27% of bets and 55% of money is on ISU +20

54% of bets and 82% of money is on UNDER 60 SC at # 21 TENN

16% of bets and 41% of money is on MSST +14.5

🏈 NFL

50% of bets and 80% of money is on UNDER 39.5 BAL at HOU

37% of bets and 70% of money is on UNDER 43 WSH at PHI

56% of bets and 85% of money is on OVER 46.5 MIN at CAR

24% of bets and 45% of bets is on LV +5

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Weekend Picks 🔒

Oregon State -4.5 | Without Rising the Utah offense becomes one-dimensional. The Beavers should slow down the run game opening the passing for Uiagaleilei. They should have the advantage on time of possession and get up a few scores against the UTES.

BYU +1 | Since 2010 BYU is 63-19 (76.8%) at home. The veteran BYU team is going to bully Cincinatti in its Big 12 opener.

Duke +5.5 | Duke has only lost one game by more than three points under Elko, and that too was a one-possession affair at Kansas last September. The Blue Devils are 13-4 ATS under last season’s ACC Coach of the Year. Duke is 4-3 straight up as an underdog under his watch, covering the spread all but once.

Syracuse +7 | 7 points is too much here. Syracuse is at home and they will want to show the ACC they are for real and I think they keep this close enough to cover of push. Take the Orange getting 7 points.

Bills -3 | The Dolphins’ 70-point game was impressive since very few teams have even come close to that mark, but Buffalo is a significantly better team than Denver. The Broncos are 0-3 on the season for a reason, and they have a turnover differential of minus-4 in 2023. Since 2019, the Bills are 7-1 against the Dolphins in the regular season and 1-0 in the playoffs. I think Buffalo is a great bet to get a win at home in Week 4.

Browns -3 | Cleveland’s defense under Jim Schwartz looks like it could be the league’s best with a dominant pass rush and clamp-down secondary. The Ravens are dealing with the injury’s and Baltimore’s offense treads through games in a way that makes it hard to see them outscoring Cleveland.