NCAAF Week 3 Preview

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Zach Beier & Chubbs Scheffler
September 15, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

The first two weeks of the 2023 college football season have already had some intense showdowns, such as Florida State taking on LSU and Texas facing off against Alabama. While Week 3 may not feature any games between ranked teams, there are still numerous intriguing matchups to look forward to. Several teams have the opportunity to make a significant impact as the Week 3 college football schedule unfolds.

The top-ranked team, Georgia have faced relatively easy opponents so far. However, the Bulldogs are set to kick off their SEC campaign against South Carolina this week, with the Week 3 college football odds favoring Georgia at -27.5 in their 3:30 p.m. ET SEC showdown on CBS.

Meanwhile, the 11th-ranked Tennessee team has had its challenges against Florida in recent years. Nevertheless, the Volunteers are currently favored by 6.5 points in the Week 3 college football spreads as they prepare to face their rivals, the Gators.

Among the other notable Week 3 college football lines, we have No. 18 Colorado, favored by -23.5 points against Colorado State, and No. 10 Alabama, expected to win by -32 points against South Florida.

 

Tennessee vs Florida

The Volunteers have high expectations for 2023, even after losing key components like quarterback Hendon Hooker and wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. Much of this optimism was rooted in head coach Josh Heupel's offensive prowess, along with the presence of rocket-armed quarterback Joe Milton III, seen as an ideal fit for the offense's vertical throw-oriented scheme.

However, the Volunteers have yet to replicate their prior efficiency this season. Currently, Tennessee ranks 56th in the nation in EPA per play, and Joe Milton has just a 66.9 passing grade, a statistic that includes matchups against Virginia and Austin Peay, an FCS school. Tennessee faces an important task in improving its performance against the Gators, who boast one of the country's top 30 defenses, ranking 29th in defensive grade and 30th in expected points allowed per play.

The story of offensive struggles isn't unique to Tennessee, as the Gators have also defied preseason expectations. Despite a dominant running back duo led by Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne and a somewhat uncertain quarterback situation with Graham Mertz, Florida was initially expected to lean heavily on their rushing attack. Surprisingly, they've done just the opposite, running the ball at the lowest rate in the Power Five and the third-lowest rate nationally at 30%.

To have a chance at upsetting the Volunteers, the Gators may need to return to their run-oriented roots, especially given Tennessee's vulnerability in run defense, where they rank 11th-worst in the Power Five.

LSU vs Mississippi State

The No. 14 LSU Tigers are set to face off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at 12 P.M. ET on ESPN. After LSU's disappointing 45-24 loss to then-No. 8 Florida State in the season opener, head coach Brian Kelly expressed his dissatisfaction, stating that the Tigers "are certainly not the football team I thought we were."

LSU managed to bounce back with a convincing 72-10 victory over Grambling State. However, this upcoming road game against Mississippi State represents a critical opportunity for the Tigers to demonstrate their resurgence. The Bulldogs have the talent to be a top 25 team.

Following the tragic passing of head coach Mike Leach, the Bulldogs underwent schematic changes under new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay. In 2022, Mississippi State heavily relied on Leach's Air-Raid system, throwing the ball on 69% of their plays, the highest rate in the country. This season, that approach has shifted dramatically, with a pass rate of only 34%, ranking seventh-lowest in the FBS.

To have a chance at an upset, the Bulldogs will likely need to unleash quarterback Will Rogers more frequently. Notably, LSU's defense currently is the 10th-worst coverage grade among Power Five teams, while excelling in run-defense, ranking in the top 30.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1961 61st US Golf amateur Championship won by Jack Nicklaus at the age of 21,

1996 Texas Rangers retire their 1st number, Nolan Ryans #34.

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers said on Thursday that surgery to repair his torn Achilles tendon went great.

Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson says he is remaining positive during his fluke injury with an unclear timeline for return.

Ole Miss defensive tackle DeSanto Rollins sues Lane Kiffin and school over “mental health crisis” for failure to provide equal protection and other allegations.

The Boston Red Sox fired chef baseball officer Chaim Bloom after four seasons and a 2023 possibility to end with a playoff berth.

The Baltimore Orioles are calling up OF Heston Kjerstad from Triple-A Norfolk adding another prospect to the big league against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Blue Jays 3B Matt Chapman was activated off the 10-day IL before the series against the Rangers.

The Atlanta Braves beat the Phillies for their 6th straight division title.

The Lakers agree with Jarred Vanderbilt to a 4-year $48 million extension.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Braves at Marlins

  • Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami

  • Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 11 games when playing Atlanta

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home

⚾️ Rays at Orioles

  • Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

⚾️ Red Sox at Blue Jays

  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 14 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games

⚾️ Reds at Mets

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing NY Mets

  • NY Mets is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

  • NY Mets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

⚾️ Twins at White Sox

  • Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox

  • Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Minnesota

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

⚾️ Phillies at Cardinals

  • Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

  • Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 10 games when playing Philadelphia

⚾️ Tigers at Angels

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing LA Angels

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit

  • LA Angels is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit

⚾️ Cubs at Diamondbacks

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs

⚾️ Padres at Athletics

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing San Diego

  • Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

⚾️ Dodgers at Mariners

  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Dodgers's last 10 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

59% of bets and 85% of money is on TOR -1.5 (

25% of bets and 51% of money is on UNDER 8 TEX at CLE

42% of bets and 68% of money is on UNDER 8.5 WSH at MIL

64% of bets and 85% of money is on OVER 10.5 HOU at KC

12% of bets and 31% of money is on COL +185

60% of bets and 90% of money is on DET -122

41% of bets and 75% of money is on DET -1.5 (

24% of bets and 58% of money is on UNDER 7.5 DET at LAA

🏈 NCAAF

9.15.23

58% of bets and 77% of money is on UNDER 44.5 Army West Point at UTSA

16% of bets and 39% of money is on USU +260

9.16.23

10% of bets and 36% of money is on UNDER 46.5 #3 FSU at BC

24% of bets and 60% of money is on UNDER 49.5 #15 MSST at MIZZ

35% of bets and 59% of money is on UNDER 48.5 NW at #21 DUKE

9% of bets and 53% of money is on SC +2000

6% of bets and 27% of money is on WMU +2200

8% of bets and 45% of money is on MINN +235

12% of bets and 41% of money is on MSU +625

41% of bets and 61% of money is on OVER 63 GT at #17 Ole Miss

🏈 NFL

52% of bets and 72% of money is on BUF -8.5

28% of bets and 74% of money is on HOU -1.5

51% of bets and 84% of money is on OVER 39.5

47% of bets and 66% of money is on DEN -3.5

55% of bets and 86% of money is on UNDER 38.5 NYJ at DAL

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Injury Report 🏥 via ESPN

ARI (RB) James Connor | Questionable - Calf, was limited in practice yesterday

ATL (DB) Jeff Okudah | Questionable - Foot

ATL (LB) Troy Andersen | Out - Concussion

BAL (TE) Mark Andrews | Questionable - Quadriceps

BAL (OT) Ronnie Stanley | Out

BAL (C) Tyler Linderbaum | Out 

BAL (CB) Marlon Humphrey | Out

BAL (RB) JK Dobbins | IR - Achilles

BAL (S) Marcus Williams | Out

CAR (WR) DJ Chark Jr | Questionable - Hamstring

CAR (DB) Jaycee Horn | Out - Hamstring, possibly needs surgery

CLE (S) Juan Thornhill | Questionable - Calf, did not practice yesterday

DAL (WR) Brandin Cooks | Questionable - Knee, did not practice today

DEN (LB) Frank Clark | Week-to-week - Hip, injured during Wednesday’s practice

DET (OT) Taylor Decker | Doubtful

GB (WR) Christian Watson | Questionable - Hamstring, did not practice yesterday

GB (RB) Aaron Jones | Questionable - Hamstring, non participant at practice yesterday

KC (TE) Travis Kelce | Probable - Knee, Andy Reid said Kelce will play Sunday

LV (WR) Jakobi Meyers | Doubtful 

LAC (LB) Eric Kendricks | Questionable - Hamstring, did not practice yesterday

LAC (LB) Joey Bosa | Questionable - Hamstring, did not practice yesterday

LAC (RB) Austin Ekeler | Questionable - Ankle, did not practice today

LAR (WR) Puka Nacua | Questionable - Oblique, expected to play Sunday

NE (CB) Jonathon Jones | Questionable - Ankle, did not practice today

TEN (S) Amani Hooker | Out - Concussion

TEN (CB) Kristian Fulton | Out - Hamstring

Weekend Picks 🔒

Astros -1.5 (-125) | These final series are crucial or the Astros as they are currently in a 3 team close race for the division title. The Astros have a 45-27 away record so look for them to come out hot tonight.

Troy -2.5 | The Trojans followed up their season-opening win with a loss to the Wildcats in their last game. They will try to bounce back from the loss with a win over the Dukes, which will give them their second win in their last three games. Troy is averaging 30.5 points per game. They are throwing for 207 yards and rushing for 206 yards per game.

Massachusetts +7 | The Massachusetts Minutemen are an improved squad this season. They only recorded one victory last year so it isn’t saying a whole lot but the program has brought in better players highlighted by QB Taisun Phommachanh who spent three seasons at Clemson. Eastern Michigan has not looked good. They only beat Howard of the FCS by 10 points at home and only scored six points in the loss against Minnesota last week.

LSU -9.5 | The way these teams match up on paper is a mismatch. It begins with an LSU defense that's tough against the run facing Mississippi State's rush-heavy offensive approach. Passing on the Tigers is a much easier task, but the Bulldogs may not have the personnel or playbook to make that happen. Will Rogers can sling it anywhere. What he can't do is consistently make plays with his legs or get his receivers open.

Steelers +2.5 | We like the Steelers at home to play much better in Week 2. The Browns were victorious in Week 1 but Deshaun Watson was 16-29 with 154 yards. Expect this Steelers defense to stop them.

Seahawks +4.5 | The Lions still have a ton of weaknesses and deficiencies, and they're in no way, shape, or form a strong bet to beat a fringe playoff team by a TD. Pete Carroll has too strong of a track record, the Seahawks have too much offensive talent, and the Lions have too questionable of a defense.

Bengals -3 | The Bengals looked awful last week. Joe Burrow did not play a single snap in preseason. They were expected to look a little rusty. I expect them to come out hot on Sunday and put up numbers against a very banged up Baltimore team.