NCAAF Week 11

AuthorAuthor

Zach Beier & Chubbs Scheffler
November 10, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

#1 Michigan at #10 PSU | 11AM CT

Over the past five games, Michigan has averaged an impressive 47.8 points while allowing only 7.4 points. They have also been fortunate to avoid significant injuries, a crucial factor at this point in the season. Quarterback McCarthy has been instrumental, boasting 2,134 passing yards with a 75.7% completion rate, 18 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. He has also contributed 137 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Running back Corum stands out as one of the top rushers in the Big 10, accumulating 649 yards with an average of 5.2 yards per carry and 16 touchdowns. Receiver Roman Wilson leads the team with 36 catches for 589 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 16.4 yards per catch.

In terms of defensive statistics, Michigan leads the nation in yards allowed per game (232.3), points allowed (6.7), and passing yards allowed (141.3). Their rush defense is also commendable, ranking 11th with 91 yards allowed per game. On the offensive front, they average 424.2 yards per game, with 257.1 passing yards (45th) and 167.1 rushing yards. Their scoring prowess is evident, averaging 40.7 points per game, placing them 5th in the nation.

Penn State has displayed glimpses of Michigan's prowess at times this season. Victories over Iowa with a convincing 31-10 score on Sept. 23 and a dominating 41-13 performance against Northwestern on the road showcased their capabilities. However, a lopsided 63-0 win against UMass, a team of lesser competition, proved insufficient preparation for the challenge of facing Ohio State, resulting in a 20-12 loss. In their encounter with an elite defense, the Nittany Lions struggled, failing to convert on their first 15 third-down attempts. Their sole touchdown of the game came with just 29 seconds remaining, making the final score appear closer than the actual game.

In their recent matchup against Maryland, Penn State reverted to their typical dominance, securing a 51-15 victory. Holding a 24-7 lead entering the fourth quarter, they added 27 points in the final stanza to secure the blowout. The defense played a pivotal role, intercepting Maryland's quarterbacks (Taulia Tagovailoa and Billy Edwards Jr.) twice, providing the offense with advantageous field position. Quarterback Drew Allar had a solid performance, completing 25 of 34 passes for 240 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The team amassed 404 total yards and stifled Maryland's rushing attack, allowing -49 yards primarily due to six sacks.

However, the upcoming challenge against Michigan is of a different caliber, distinct from Maryland, Northwestern, or even Iowa, known for its formidable defense. The key to success for Penn State lies in impeding the Wolverines' potent running game. Reflecting on last year's matchup, Michigan's Donovan Edwards (173 yards) and Corum (166 yards) ran rampant on the ground. Penn State's run defense currently tops the nation, allowing a mere 58.8 yards per game, and they stand 12th against the pass (175.7). Overall, they rank second in total defense (234.4 yards per game) and third in points allowed (11.9).

However, Penn State faces a challenge on the offensive front, lacking the explosiveness seen in their defensive performance. Quarterback Drew Allar, a sizable sophomore at 6-5, 243 pounds, has posted impressive numbers with 1,895 passing yards (62.8%), 20 touchdowns, and just one interception. Yet, he encountered difficulties against Iowa (166 yards, 4 TDs) and Ohio State (18-of-42, 191 yards, 1 TD). The pressure is on him to go beyond managing the game, needing to make plays and connect with key receiver Keandre Lambert-Smith, who boasts 51 catches for 645 yards. Despite running back Kaytron Allen's strong season with 573 yards rushing and four touchdowns, Saturday's matchup against Michigan's formidable defense presents a challenge with limited running lanes.

#9 Ole Miss at #2 UGA | 6PM CT

Ole Miss narrowly secured a win against Texas A&M in their recent matchup, clinching a three-point victory as the Aggies' game-tying field goal fell short. Despite spending 11 fewer minutes with possession of the football, the Rebels outgained A&M with a total of 518 yards to 457. Junior quarterback Jaxson Dart played a pivotal role, passing for 387 yards with an impressive average of 11.7 yards per completion.

Dart stands at the helm of Ole Miss' aerial assault, amassing 2,467 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions. His completion rate stands at 65.6 percent, accompanied by a noteworthy 82.2 QBR, ranking 12th in the NCAA. The receiving corps is formidable, featuring three senior wide receivers – Jordan Watkins, Tre Harris, and Dayton Wade – each boasting over 600 receiving yards. Together, they have accumulated nearly 2,000 yards and secured 13 touchdowns. Complementing the passing game, sophomore running back Quinshon Judkins leads the Rebels' ground attack with 793 yards on 169 carries and 12 touchdowns.

Offensively, Ole Miss averages 38.8 points per game, ranking 14th nationally, and gains an average of 478.9 total yards, placing them 12th. The passing game contributes significantly with 297.7 yards per game (15th), while the rushing attack adds 181.2 yards per game (35th). The team faces challenges in converting third downs, with a 32.3 percent success rate (110th), but excels in the red zone, scoring on 86.8 percent of their trips (46th).

On the defensive side, Ole Miss allows an average of 22.9 points (45th) and 365.7 total yards (61st) per game. Their pass defense yields 228.4 yards (65th), and their rush defense allows 137.2 yards (55th). The defense has demonstrated effectiveness with 31 sacks and ten interceptions. However, opponents find success on third downs, converting 41.3 percent of attempts (86th), and score on 85.7 percent of their visits to the red zone (74th).

Georgia secured a hard-fought victory against Missouri in their recent outing, with defensive tackle Nazir Stackhouse sealing the deal with a crucial fourth-quarter interception that disrupted the opposing team's momentum. Despite trailing 13-10 early in the second half, the Bulldogs rallied with two touchdowns, ultimately winning both the turnover and time of possession battles. Impressively, they achieved a combined 7-for-14 success rate on third and fourth downs.

Junior quarterback Carson Beck spearheads Georgia's offensive efforts, amassing 2,716 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions. His stellar 82.8 QBR ranks tenth nationally. Beck's primary targets include junior tight end Brock Bowers, with 41 receptions for 567 yards and four touchdowns, and junior wide receiver Dominic Lovett, who has secured 39 receptions for 398 yards and two touchdowns. On the ground, senior running back Daijun Edwards leads the Bulldogs with 633 yards on 111 carries, accompanied by eight scores.

Offensively, Georgia boasts impressive statistics, averaging 39.3 points per game (10th) and 492.9 total yards (6th). Their passing game contributes significantly with 325.3 yards per game (6th), complemented by 167.6 rushing yards (47th). The Bulldogs excel in converting third-down attempts, boasting a remarkable 56.3 percent success rate (1st), and display efficiency in the red zone, scoring on 91.3 percent of their visits (20th).

Defensively, Georgia is equally formidable, allowing an average of 15.4 points (6th) and 282.2 total yards (9th) per game. Their pass defense ranks 19th, yielding 182.2 yards, while their rush defense allows 100.0 yards (15th). With 19 sacks and 11 interceptions, the Bulldogs' defense has proven impactful. Opponents face significant challenges on third downs, converting only 28.2 percent of attempts (5th), though they have found relative success in the red zone, scoring on 89.4 percent of their trips (106th).

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sports History: 1934 first NHL penalty shot is awarded to Montreal Canadiens forward Armand Mondou; stopped by Toronto goaltender George Hainsworth in Maple Leafs' 2-1 win,

1940 Pittsburgh Steelers & Philadelphia Eagles play one of only 4 penalty free games in NFL history; Steelers win 7-3 at Forbes Field, Pittsburgh

Jon Harbaugh suspended for the rest of the regular season. He can be with the team still, just can not be on the sidelines during the games.

ESPN to ban insiders such as WOJ and Schefter from betting on sports that they cover.

LA Angels sign Ron Washington to be their new Manager.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

🎓🏈 TTU at #16 KU

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas's last 6 games at home

🎓🏈 #8 BAMA at UK

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kentucky's last 6 games

🎓🏈 #3 MICH at #10 PSU

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan's last 5 games

🎓🏈 TLSA at #23 TULN

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 5 games when playing Tulane

  • Tulsa is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Tulane

  • Tulane is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tulane's last 8 games

🎓🏈 BAY at #25 KSU

  • Kansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

🎓🏈 MIA at #4 FSU

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida State

  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami-FL's last 12 games when playing Florida State

  • Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

🎓🏈 #15 OKST at UCF

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Central Florida's last 5 games at home

🎓🏈 #9 MISS at #2 UGA

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Mississippi's last 9 games when playing Georgia

🎓🏈 FLA at #19 LSU

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida's last 5 games when playing Louisiana State

  • Louisiana State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana State's last 5 games at home

🎓🏈 USC at #6 ORE

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California's last 5 games on the road

  • Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

  • Oregon is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

🏈 Colts at Patriots

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 15 games

  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

🏈 Saints at Vikings

  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 10 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New Orleans's last 15 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games

  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

🏈 Texans at Bengals

  • Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

  • Cincinnati is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home

🏈 Packers at Steelers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games

  • Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

  • Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

🏈 Titans at Buccaneers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road

  • Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home

🏈 Broncos at Bills

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

  • Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver

  • Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

🏀 NBA

40% of bets and 60% of money is on CHA +3

42% of bets and 73% of money is on BOS -12

23% of bets and 64% of money is on UNDER 226 BKN at BOS

49% of bets and 74% of money is on UNDER 229 UTA at MEM

🎓🏀 NCAAB

22% of bets and 71% of money is on UNDER 144.5 UCF at #13 MIA

19% of bets and 61% of money is on UNDER 138.5 #15 TXAM at OSU

30% of bets and 50% of money is on OSU -125

14% of bets and 54% of money is on INST +18

48% of bets and 69% of money is on OVER 162.5 INST at #22 BAMA

45% of bets and 70% of money is on UNDER 150.5 OAK at #25 ILL

13% of bets and 36% of money is on UNDER 141.5 MAN at #1 KU

27% of bets and 59% of money is on BYU -135

🎓🏈 NCAAF

15% of bets and 43% of money is on TTU +160

58% of bets and 81% of money is on OVER 62.5 TTU at #16 KU

19% of bets and 39% of money is on UNDER 47 #8 BAMA at UK

26% of bets and 52% of money is on COLO +300

49% of bets and 72% of money is on OVER 65.5 UCF at #15 OKST

18% of bets and 62% of money is on UNDER 50 #13 UTA at #5 WASH

37% of bets and 69% of money is on UNDER 54.5 STAN at #12 ORST

11% of bets and 42% of money is on USC +575

🏈 NFL

41% of bets and 73% of money is on UNDER 39 CLE at BAL

35% of bets and 63% of money is on OVER 43 ATL at ARI

28% of bets and 55% of money is on ARI +105

66% of bets and 86% of money is on SEA -6.5

47% of bets and 64% of money is on OVER 44.5 WSH at SEA

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Weekend Picks 🔒

USC 1H +340 | This was once a ranked team, and now they are over a two touchdown underdog. Yes, things change throughout the year and teams show to regress or impress. Although the Trojans are no longer a ranked team, they are the #2 scoring offense in the NCAA. The Ducks are the #1 scoring offense in the NCAA. Point being, this is the best team you will ever get this high of a price on. I believe there is a shot the Trojans get the upset in this game. I like the chances of the Trojans being able to outscore the Ducks in atleast one half. The Trojans offense can go back and forth with any team in the nation. I will also be taking USC full game +575 and +15.5.

Ravens -6.5 | The Ravens have been playing like the best team in the NFL over the past few weeks. When these teams played earlier this year the Ravens were missing key players on offense and defense. I believe the Ravens will handle their division foe easily, again.

49ers -3 | The 49ers had their bye week last week. I believe they took full advantage, and will get back to the solid play they started the season with. Spite their loses, the 49ers have still been efficient. Deebo is back. Trent Willams may be back as well. If Purdy can limit the turnovers the Niners should get the W on the road.