MLB Season Pt. 2

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

All star week is over and the trade deadline is around the corner and these next two week will provide a line of separation between contenders and surrenders. The second half will be filled with compelling storylines and the biggest and boldest will captivate our attention right until the post season. here are a couple storylines we could possibly see as the deadline approaches.

The biggest would be what is going to happen in Shohei Ohtani’s future. The Angel’s are telling everyone they are going to keep him but they have lost 13 out of their last 17 games and are 5-6 games behind the wild card and will be without Mike Trout until August. The heavy betting money is that Ohtani stays, at least until the final out of the World Series, where he hits free agency and likely receives the most lucrative contract in North American sports history. Until the trade deadline ends, all eyes will be on baseballs greatest star.  

Next we have our eyes on the Padres and Mets The Padres may have more star power than any team in decades. The Mets will have dropped a half-billion dollars on this team factoring in luxury taxes. Here they are with losing records entering the second half, with neither team closer than six games in the wild-card race. The Mets and Padres need to have get back where they belong. They’re playing better but neither team has the connection and chemistry to make them contenders. If they don’t start off strong in the second half, they could create a tidal wave in the trade market, open to trading everyone from Juan Soto to Max Scherzer to Josh Hader.

There has also been a few teams that have exceeded expectations who will be in the buyers market. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who have gotten by with just two veteran starters and no closer, sitting in a first-place tie with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The Cincinnati Reds, with a starting rotation that is yielding an ugly 5.69 ERA, but have gone 23-7 since the arrival of Elly De La Cruz. The Miami Marlins, with Sandy Alcantara barely resembling his Cy Young self and Jazz Chisholm spending most of the first half on the injured list, holding a National League wild-card spot. They could dig into their farm system and trade away top prospects to go all in or do they stay conservative and pick up some relievers and grab a back-end starter?

Finally, we have the Yankees GM Brian Cashman, showing urgency, and perhaps desperation, fired his hitting coach, Dillon Lawson, in midseason for the first time in his 25-year career, hiring MLB Network studio host Sean Casey, who has never coached a day at the professional level. He keeps telling everyone to stay patient until reigning MVP Aaron Judge returns, believing that the return of Carlos Rodon will fortify the rotation, but what if nothing changes and the Yankees somehow miss the playoffs. If the season ended today, the Yankees would be out. The Yankees’ offense has been so miserable that Judge hasn’t played a game since June 3, and still leads the team with 40 RBI. Their pitching has been so pitiful that All-Star Gerrit Cole is their only pitcher who has an ERA better than the American League average.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1968 Brave Hank Aaron hits his 500^th HR off Giants Mike McCormick. 

2019 Novak Djokovic wins longest ever Wimbledon final over Roger Federer in 4 Hours and 57 minutes winning his 16^th Grand Slam title. 

The Chicago Bulls have been awarded a $10.2 million disabled player exception because of the season-ending knee injury to guard Lonzo Ball.  

The Boston Celtics forward Kristaps Porzingis has signed a new two-year extension worth $60 million, keeping him under $96 million through the 2025-2026 season.

The NBA's board of governors approved two rule changes that will go into effect next season. A second coaches challenge if the first one is successful and an in game flopping penalty.

Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and right-hander Jose Urquidy will begin rehab assignments today at Triple-A. 

The Dodgers and Padres will play Major League Baseball's first regular-season games in South Korea, opening next season in Seoul on March 20-21.

The Jets have signed all-pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams with a four-year, $96 million contract extension with $66 million guaranteed.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Marlins at Orioles

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

⚾️ Diamondbacks at Blue Jays

• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games

⚾️ Brewers at Reds

• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 10 games

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home

⚾️ Dodgers at Mets

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road

⚾️ White Sox at Braves

• Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox

• Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

⚾️ Red Sox at Cubs

• Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

• Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

⚾️ Guardians at Rangers

• Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas

• Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas

⚾️ Rays at Royals

• Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

⚾️ Nationals at Cardinals

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Washington

⚾️ Astros at Angels

• Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Angels

• Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

21% of bets and 36% of money is on over 9.5 CWS at ATL

45% of bets and 60% of money is on OVER 9 SF at PIT

36% of bets and 80% of money is on OVER 9.5 MIL at CIN

60% of bets and 86% of money is on TEX -1.5 (

36% of bets and 52% of money is on OVER 9 BOS at CHI

62% of bets and 87% of money is on STL -1.5 (

25% of bets and 63% of money is on UNDER 7 DET at SEA

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Injury Report 🏥 via ESPN

ATL (RP) AJ Minter | Day-to-Day - Left Saturday’s game with pectoral discomfort

CHC (SS) Dansby Swanson | 10 Day IL - Heel contusion, placed on IL last Thursday

CWS (SP) Michael Kopech | 15 Day IL - Shoulder, activated and starting today at ATL

CWS (CF) Luis Robert Jr | Day-to-Day - Experienced calf tightness is the first round of HR derby

HOU (2B) Jose Altuve | 10 Day IL - Oblique, could be activated as soon as this weekend

PHI (LF) Christian Pache | 10 Day IL

PHI (3B) Josh Harrison | 10 Day IL - Wrist

PHI (DH) Bryce Harper | Day-to-Day - Wrist

PHI (RP) Jose Alvarado | 15 Day IL - Elbow inflation

SEA (SP) Bryce Miller | 15 Day IL - Finger, should return next week

TB (SP) Shane McLanahan | 15 Day IL - Back, expected to return and start on Sunday vs KC

TB (1B) Yandy Diaz | Paternity - Placed on Thursday

Picks 🔒

MLB

Astros +140 | Ohtani is also 0-2 in his two starts against the Astros this year already and is just 3-5 lifetime vs. the Astros. Houston comes into this game just two games out of first place and will be backed by Valdez, who looked like he was back to full strength in his last outing vs. Seattle. Houston is 5-2 this season against the Angels and faces an Angels team that is as banged up as any team in baseball.

Orioles -120 | I like the Orioles to start the 2nd half the way they closed out the 1st half with a win. Baltimore has taken care of business all season at Camden Yards and sit 14 games above .500 in night games.

Divisions

We’re at the halfway point of the season, meaning we have a chance to sit down and evaluate how teams looked over the first half of the season. Some teams seem to have peaked, such at the Rangers- I expect the pitching to come back to the median. Slow starting teams such at the Mariners could heat up at the right time coming into the playoffs. With this being said I think there are some teams with great value that could get hot and clinch their division. These are the teams we think have good value to win;

San Fransisco +650 | The Giants are only 2.5 games back, yet are +650 to win their division. They have two great pitchers in Webb and Cobb. The bullpen has been able to hold teams to just 2 runs on days when they’re needed most. This team has the tools to keep winning.

Seattle +850 | Gray and Dunning have never had seasons this great and I expect the pitching to regress the second half of the season for the Rangers. The Astros have been extremely unfortunate with all of the injuries the teams is having this season. Seattle notoriously starts their season slow and they have the key pieces to put together a strong second half. 6 games back is not much when there are 73 games left to be played.

Toronto +900 | The Yanks are banged up and are 8 games back. They always could win it, but I’m not betting on it. The red-hot Rays are one of the biggest stories this year as they started the season 13-0 and have not looked back much since, but they have been struggling as of late. The young and gritty Orioles have done great keeping up the wins and are having a hell of a season too. This division really is up for grabs so I see the most value in the Blue Jays. This team is young and full of talent. The pitching has been decent this year. Manoah looked solid in his first start back in the bigs. This team is capable of going on a heavy win streak.

Tigers +3000 | Fuck it. This division is so bad. They’re 5.5 games back and 30/1. Let’s go Tigers.