March Madness

Final Four

AuthorAuthor

Zach Beier & Chubbs Scheffler
March 31, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

For the first time since 1979 there is not a single top 3 seed in the Final four. This makes UConn the favorite to win it all entering the Final Four. UConn entered the tournament with 15-1 odds, the eighth shortest. It could be the first team since 2016 Villanova 15-1 to win the NCAA tournament with double-digit odds. UConn has rolled through the tournament, covering games by 17.5 points per game. The other three teams here are true long shots, led by Florida Atlantic. The Owls entered 300-1 to win the NCAA tournament. That would be the longest pre-tournament odds by a champion since seeding began in 1979. The only team with odds of at least 40-1 to win it all entering the tournament was 2014 UConn at 95-1. San Diego State 65-1 and Miami 40-1 also would be the second-biggest long shots to win the NCAA tournament entering the event. All four teams have been profitable against the spread this season, led by FAU and UConn. UConn is 14-1 ATS when facing non Big East opponents. Miami is the best team in the nation as an underdog over the past three seasons, going 34-12 ATS. San Diego State has also been trending under, with each of its past 12 games going under the total. Things will get interesting on Saturday and anything could happen in this Final Four of Madness.

Headlines 🚨

On This day in Sports History: 1973 Philadelphia Flyers score an NHL record tying 8 goals from an astounding 60 shots in the 2nd period of a 10-2 win over New York Islanders.

Shohei Ohtani calls his own pitches using PitchCom, Strikes out 10 in loss against the Athletics.

The Boston Celtics beat the Bucks by 41 in last nights game, the race for No. 1 seed continues.

Barcelona confirms Lionel Messi is in talks to be transferred as PSG contract is almost over.

Oscar Pistorious denied parole over killing of girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp.

MVP candidate Nikola Jokic sits out in loss against the Pelicans.

Knicks Julius Randle to have ankle reevaluated in 2 weeks after suffering a sprain in Wednesdays game against Miami.

Adley Rutschman has historic 5 for 5 opener and carried the Orioles to a win. He is the first player since 1937 to go 5-5 or better and the first catcher since at least 1900.

Mets put Justin Verlander on the IL with a low muscle strain.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

🏀 NBA

Bulls at Hornets

  • Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road

  • Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

🏀 Magic at Wizards

  • Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando

  • Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Orlando

🏀 Thunder at Pacers

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Indiana

  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of Oklahoma City's last 19 games when playing on the road against Indiana

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games at home

🏀 Raptors at 76ers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games

🏀 Jazz at Celtics

  • Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

  • Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston

  • Boston is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home

  • Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

🏀 Hawks at Nets

  • Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Brooklyn

  • Brooklyn is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

🏀 Knicks at Cavaliers

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

  • New York is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games

  • Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

🏀 Clippers at Grizzlies

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers

  • Memphis is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

🏀 Lakers at Timberwolves

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers

  • Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers

🏀 Pistons at Rockets

  • Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games

🏀 Spurs at Warriors

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games

  • Golden State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

  • Golden State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home

🏀 Kings at Trail Blazers

  • Sacramento is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

  • Sacramento is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road

  • Portland is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Sacramento

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games at home

🏀 Nuggets at Suns

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games

  • Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

  • Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver

  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Phoenix's last 13 games when playing at home against Denver

🎓🏀 Miami vs Uconn

  • Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Connecticut

  • Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

🎓🏀 FAU vs SDSU

  • Florida Atlantic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 7 games.

  • San Diego State is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Diego State’s last 10 games.

🏒 Rangers at Sabres

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

  • NY Rangers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo

  • Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Rangers

🏒 Red Wings at Jets

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit's last 14 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games

🏒 Flames at Canucks

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing Vancouver

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against Vancouver

  • Vancouver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

  • Vancouver is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

🏒 Stars at Wild

  • Dallas is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Arizona

  • Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road

  • Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

  • Arizona is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

🏀 NBA

63% of bets and 88% of money is on PHI -5.5

27% of bets and 50% of money is on UNDER 224.5 TOR at PHI

49% of bets and 64% of money is on ORL -1

49% of bets and 86% of money is on CHI -10

41% of bets and 61% of money is on MEM -6.5

64% of bets and 84% of money is on OVER 235 LAC at MEM

37% of bets and 64% of money is on UNDER 233 LAL at MIN

63% of bets and 82% of money is on GSW -18

61% of bets and 80% of money is on SAC -14

45% of bets and 79% of money is on PHX -9.5

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

(Betting advice) | If you like UCONN to win it all, you get better odds if you take Sanogo and Hawkins to win the MOP rather than taking UCONN -125 on the future line

Injury Report 🏥 via ESPN

Anthony Davis | Probable vs MIN

ATL (SF) Deandre Hunter | Questionable - Knee

ATL (SF) Jalen Johnson | Questionable - Hamstring

BKN (C) Day’Ron Sharpe | Questionable - Ankle

CHI (SG) Alex Caruso | Questionable - Foot

CHI (C) Andre Drummond | Questionable - Personal

CLE (SF) Isaac Okoro | Out - Knee

CLE (F) Danny Green | Out - Illness

DET (SF) Bojan Bogdanovic | Out - Achilles

DET (G) Rodney McGruder | Out - Foot

DET (SG) Alec Burks | Out - Foot

HOU (F) Kenyon Martin Jr | Questionable - Hip

HOU (SF) Jae’Sean Tate | Out - Knee

IND (C) Myles Turner | Questionable - Back

IND (SG) Chris Duarte | Out - Ankle

IND (PG) Tyrese Haliburton | Out - Ankle

LAC (PF) Kawhi Leonard | Questionable - Personal

LAC (SF) Marcus Morris Sr | Out - Illness

LAL (PF) Anthony Davis | Probable - Foot

LAL (SF) LeBron James | Questionable - Foot

MIN (C) Naz Reid | Out - Wrist (indefinitely)

MIN (SG) Jaylen Nowell | Questionable - Knee

MIN (PF) Taurean Prince | Questionable - Illness

MIN (SG) Austin Rivers | Questionable - Illness

NYK (PG) Derrick Rose | Questionable - Illness

NYK (PG) Julius Randle | Out - Ankle (2 week min)

OKC (PG) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Out - Ankle

ORL (G) Kevon Harris | Out - Elbow

POR (SF) Cam Reddish | Doubtful - Back

POR (C) Jusuf Nurkic | Out - Knee

POR (SF) Jerami Grant | Out - Quad

SAS (C) Khem Birch | Out - Knee

SAS (PF) Zach Collins | Out - Injury Management

TOR (SG) Gary Trent Jr | Questionable - Elbow

UTA (PG) Colin Sexton | Out - Hamstring

UTA (C) Rudy Gay | Out - Back

UTA (PG) Jordan Clarkson | Out - Finger

WSH (PF) Kyle Kuzma | Out - Ankle

WSH (SG) Bradley Beal | Out - Knee

Weekend Picks 🔒

Minnesota +1 | The Timberwolves are playing some of the best basketball in the Western Conference right now. They are pushing their way out of the play in and pushing top 6. The Lakers defense is 18th in the league in points allowed when they are away and well take the home team to get a win here.

FAU/SDSU UNDER 131.5 | The total has gone under in 5 out of the last 7 FAU games. San Diego plays at one of the slowest paces and they force opposing team to 18 seconds per possession which will cut down on shot attempts for FAU.