John Deere Classic

AuthorAuthor

Zach Beier & Chubbs Scheffler
July 05, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

Six of the last nine champions of the John Deere Classic have been first time winners on the PGA Tour. Hosted by TPC Deere Run, this week represents the third birdie favored course in a row on the summer schedule. Two weeks ago, Keegan Bradley won in Connecticut at the Travelers Championship. Last week Rickie Fowler ended a four-year win drought by making 28 birdies and one eagle at the Rocket Mortgage.

The last 10 winners of the JDC have averaged 21 under par in victory. Our champion will need 25-plus birdies to win on Tour. TPC Deere Run is a par-71 layout stretching 7,289 yards. Four par-3s, three par-5s, and 11 par-4s cover the scorecard. Short by Tour standards, the No. 1 defense of the course might just be the strength of field. The OWGR measures strength of field for all the events on the PGA Tour schedule. Over the past five years, the average field rating for the John Deere Classic is 98.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic held a rating of 244. The designated-event Travelers secured a 403 strength of field rating and the U.S. Open had a 421. One primary reason why so many first-time winners occur at the JDC is the competition.  Tournament officials expect a soft course this week for scoring. The region has received some rain. Showers on Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday will keep the green surfaces just soft enough to be receptive. More precipitation is expected Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are forecasted to sit in the high 70s and the wind in the single digits.

TPC Deere Run is a woodland layout with 76 bunkers, elevation changes and winding fairways. No hole runs straight from tee to green that is longer than a par-3. Players favor driving accuracy over length. At 7,200 yards, the venue brings the entire field into consideration. At any course where Ryder Cup captains Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker share four wins, we know iron accuracy and putting are important. Looking through the last 10 winners, we see the largest average strokes-gained statistics came with the putter.

Schenk +3000

Chez Reavie +6000

 Dylan Wu +6600

Headlines 🚨

On This day in Sport History: 1934 Lou Gehrig hits record 17th grand slam passing Babe Ruth’s total.

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roger Clemens collects his 3000th career strikeout in 2-1 win over Tampa Bay.

The Orlando Magic are promoting Anthony Parker to general manager replacing longtime league executive John Hammond.

The Orlando Magic waived Bol Bol right before the deadline to guarantee Bol’s $2.2 million contract for next season.

Minnesota Timberwolves Anthony Edwards has agreed to a five-year max rookie contract worth $260 million.

The Milwaukee Bucks have agreed to a one-year $2.7 million deal with free agent Malik Beasley.

The Los Angeles Angels have put Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon on the Injured List.

The Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Dustin May will undergo season ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right elbow.

Tennessee Titans running back Hassan Haskins was arrested and charged with aggravated assault from an incident on June 22nd with his girlfriend.

5 Star receiver Cameron Coleman who is the top WR in the 2024 class has committed to Jimbo Fisher and the Texas A&M aggies on Tuesday.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Rockies at Astros

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Houston

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado

⚾️ Cardinals at Marlins

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

⚾️ Phillies at Rays

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road

⚾️ Athletics at Tigers

  • Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

  • Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit's last 21 games at home

⚾️ Orioles at Yankees

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

⚾️ Reds at Nationals

  • Cincinnati is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games on the road

  • Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

  • Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

⚾️ Braves at Guardians

  • Atlanta is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

  • Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

⚾️ Rangers at Redsox

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games

  • Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games at home

⚾️ Royals at Twins

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road

  • Minnesota is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Kansas City

  • Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City

⚾️ Blue Jays at White Sox

  • Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox

  • Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox

⚾️ Cubs at Brewers

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games

  • Chi Cubs is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home

⚾️ Mariners at Giants

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

  • Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Seattle

⚾️ Mets at Diamondbacks

  • NY Mets is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing Arizona

  • NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona

⚾️ Pirates at Dodgers

  • Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

56% of bets and 77% of money is on NYY +100

46% of bets and 64% of money is on UNDER 9 BAL at NYY

60% of bets and 78% of money is on CIN -1.5 (

49% of bets and 68% of money is on TEX -1.5 (

57% of bets and 83% of money is on TOR -1.5 (

44% of bets and 66% of money is on CHC -1.5 (

49% of bets and 81% of money is on UNDER 8.5 CHC at MIL

48% of bets and 84% of money is on SF -1.5 (

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

John Deere Classic Winner

Picks 🔒

Arthur Fils +125 | Fils should win the mental war here against a player who has a reputation for poor shot selection and erratic play on court. Davidovich plays better on clay court and as an underdog on grass we like the Frenchmen here who has had much success this year.

Diamondbacks -105 | The Diamondbacks are 24-21 at home compared to the Mets 19-27 record on the road this season. The Mets are also 1-6 in their last 6 games against a left-handed pitcher.

Chez Reavie Top 40 (-140) | Chez has been on a roll. He has made six straight cuts. His consistent ball striking got him 4th at the Travelers and with that hot putter he should be in contention again.