First Weekend of NFL and NCAAF

AuthorAuthor

Zach Beier & Chubbs Scheffler
September 08, 2023

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

Last week Texas overcame in-state l Rice in a home game under the leadership of former Nick Saban assistant Steve Sarkisian since 2021, has been steadily regaining its status in college football, thanks to a substantial talent recruitment to Austin. Alabama looked like powerhouse to maintain its position among the sport's elite after two consecutive seasons without a national title. Although the outcome of Saturday's game won't determine the championship, the winner will secure a high-profile victory that could bolster their chances of entering the four-team College Football Playoff.

Sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers impressed in the opening week, completing 19 of 30 passes for 260 yards and contributing four total touchdowns. Texas' running game also shone, with sophomore Jaydon Blue (10 carries for 55 yards), sophomore Jonathon Brooks (12 carries for 52 yards), and freshman CJ Baxter (five carries for 38 yards) consistently moving the ball downfield. Leading the receiving was All-American hopeful Xavier Worthy, who hauled in seven receptions for 90 yards, while five other receivers secured at least two passes. With Ewers in good health, the passing offense could prove electric, with targets like Jordan Whittington (652 receiving yards), Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell (three catches for 26 yards and a TD against Rice), Wyoming transfer Isaiah Neyor (averaging 20 yards per catch with 12 TDs), and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (613 receiving yards and five TDs).

In their recent matchup against Middle Tennessee, the Crimson Tide dominated, securing a 28-0 lead in the first half and a 28-7 victory overall. Alabama's ground game racked up 205 yards on 40 carries (averaging 5.1 yards per carry) and added 226 passing yards with a 70.8% completion rate. Sophomore QB Jalen Milroe led the team in both categories, amassing 242 total yards and five total touchdowns. Middle Tennessee struggled to gain ground against Alabama's formidable defensive front, managing only three yards per carry, and found it challenging to complete passes against their lockdown secondary, averaging 3.8 yards per completion.

Saturday's game marks an important moment for Alabama, as it's their first significant challenge since defeating Kansas State by 25 points in the Sugar Bowl, marking their 11th bowl/CFP victory in the last eight seasons. The performance of the offensive line remains a question mark, and it may put significant pressure on the untested sophomore Milroe. Nonetheless, if needed, the Tide have capable backups in former Notre Dame starter Tyler Buchner and highly touted freshman Ty Simpson.

Whoever takes the reins at quarterback will have the advantage of a more experienced receiving unit in 2023. Leading receivers Jermaine Burton (40 receptions for 677 yards and seven touchdowns) and JaCorey Brooks (39 receptions for 674 yards and eight touchdowns) are back, while sophomore Isaiah Bond made a strong impression last week with five catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. In the early part of the year, senior running backs Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams will carry the majority of the rushing load until star freshman Justice Haynes gains experience.

Alabama's defense ranked 12th in the nation in total defense, ninth in scoring defense, and topped the SEC in pass efficiency defense last season. However, there were occasional vulnerabilities against the run and a shortage of interceptions. The defensive line boasts a formidable lineup of space eaters and pass rushers, with sophomores Jaheim Oatis and seniors Tim Smith among the unit's standout performers.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1958 Roberto Clemente ties modern record 3 triples in a game,

1973 Hank Aaron sets record of most HRs in 1 league with 709.

Bengals Quarterback agrees to record 5-year $275 million extension which includes $219 guaranteed.

The Detroit Lions upset the Superbowl Champion Chiefs 21-20.

Minnesota Vikings receiver Jsutin Jefferson continues to talk about wanting a new deal before the opener on Sunday against the Buccaneers.

North Carolina Wide Receiver Tez Walker denied appeal and is ineligible for 2023 season.

Kansas Quarterback Jalon Daniels is expected to play against Illinois Friday after missing the season opener because of tightness in his back.

LSU star defensive tackle Maason Smith is expected to play his first games against Grambling.

Team USA loses to Germany 113-111 in FIBA World cup semi-final.

Shohei Ohtani took swings in the batting cage and did other baseball activities Thursday, nearing a return to the LA Angels lineup after straining his right oblique.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Mariners at Rays

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

⚾️ Brewers at Yankees

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

⚾️ Marlins at Phillies

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games

⚾️ Dodgers at Nationals

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road

  • LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

⚾️ Royals at Blue Jays

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games

  • Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City

  • Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City 

⚾️ Orioles at Red Sox

  • Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of Boston's last 20 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games at home

⚾️ Pirates at Braves

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

⚾️ Athletics at Rangers

  • Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games at home

⚾️ Padres at Astros

  • San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston

⚾️ Mets at Twins

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games

⚾️ Guardians at Angels

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels

⚾️ Rockies at Giants

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Colorado

  • San Francisco is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Colorado

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

41% of bets and 75% of money is on ARI -1.5 (+145)

28% of bets and 60% of money is on SEA -1.5 (+150)

55% of bets and 78% of money is on DET -1.5 (+150)

57% of bets and 74% of money is on OVER 9 MIL at NYY

34% of bets and 74% of money is on NYY -1.5 (+165)

35% of bets and 84% of money is on UNDER 9 KC at TOR

34% of bets and 54% of money is on NYM -112

22% of bets and 84% of money is on SD +110

27% of bets and 64% of money is on UNDER 8.5 SD at HOU

30% of bets and 78% of money is on UNDER 8.5 COL at SF

🎓🏈 NCAAF

16% of bets and 37% of money is on UNDER 47 #12 UTAH at BAY

47% of bets and 75% of money is on UNDER 59 NEB at #22 COL

53% of bets and 76% of money is on OVER 57 UNLV at #2 MICH

27% of bets and 56% of money is on #24 TUL +250

20% of bets and 49% of money is on UNDER 58.5 APP at #17 UNC

29% of bets and 61% of money is on UNDER 53.5 #11 TEX at #3 BAMA

21% of bets and 51% of money is on #11 TEX +225

15% of bets and 47% of money is on WSU +200

26% of bets and 62% of money is on STAN +29.5

6% of bets and 61% of money is on STAN +2000

🏈 NFL

28% of bets and 65% of money is on HOU +9.5

52% of bets and 87% of money is on UNDER 47.5 CIN at CLE

35% of bets and 54% of money is on PIT +115

16% of bets and 35% of money is on IND +5

51% of bets and 84% of money is on UNDER 46.5 JAX at IND

52% of bets and 85% of money is on UNDER 45.5 TB at MIN

48% of bets and 69% of money is on TEN +3

41% of bets and 60% of money is on TEN +140

42% of bets and 62% of money is on LV +150

56% of bets and 79% of money is on MIA +135

33% of bets and 58% of money is on UNDER 51 MIA at LAC

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Injury Report 🏥 via ESPN

ATL (3B) Austin Riley | Day-to-Day - Illness

ATL (SP) Michael Soroka | 15 Day IL - Forearm, shutdown for the season

BOS (RF) Alex Verdugo | Day-to-Day - Hamstring

CWS (SS) Tim Anderson | Day-to-Day - Neck

CIN (RF) Hunter Renfroe | Day-to-Day - Hamstring

LAA (DH) Shohei Ohtani | Day-to-Day - Oblique

LAD (RF) Mookie Betts | Day-to-Day - Foot, left yesterdays game with injury

MIA (DH) Jorge Soler | 10 Day IL

MIA (SP) Sandy Alcantara | 15 Day IL - Forearm

PHI (SS) Trea Turner | Paternity

PIT (DH) Andrew McCutchen | 10 Day IL - Achilles

SD (1B) Ji Man Choi | 10 Day IL - Ribs, fractured his ankle playing in rehab game with Triple-A El Paso

SEA (LF) Jared Kelenic | 10 Day IL - Foot, could be activated any day now

Weekend Picks 🔒

 

Alabama -7: The Alabama defense is going to give Texas a rude awakening and will look to expose Ewers and Texas as frauds for even entering the conversation of college football's elite. Milroe's dual-threat ability will be a factor on Saturday, forcing the Longhorns to take some of their attention off the Crimson Tide's other playmakers. That will prove deadly on several occasions, giving Bama the cushion it needs to comfortably cover the seven-point spread.

NC State +7.5: NC State has excelled against non-conference opponents in the recent past, winning 10 of the last 11 games. The Wolfpack also have an impact transfer in Brennan Armstrong at the quarterback position, though NC State still projects to be led by a stout defense. NC State allowed only 14 points to UConn in the season opener, and the Huskies generated only 4.2 yards per pass attempt.

Texas Tech +7: Texas Tech is going to be motivated after its disappointing loss to Wyoming last week. Tyler Shough finished with 338 passing yards and three touchdowns but Gino Garcia missed two field goals and had another blocked. They should bounce back here and keep it close.

Browns +2: Cincinnati is 1-4 against the Brown in their last 5 games. Following the trend here with Deshaun Watson.

Titans +3: I like Tennessee as a candidate for an upset here because this team seems to do best when everyone counts them out. The health of Receiver Treylon Burks will be key as game time approaches, I think the Titans will be able to put up points. And, with Derek Carr new to the New Orleans’ roster, it may take some time for him to connect with his teammates.

Steelers +2.5: I see the 49ers as a bit of a candidate for a minor regression. Brock Purdy’s arm will be a question after his offseason rehabbing his elbow injury and Nick Bosa’s status presents a clear problem for the pass rush. Kenny Pickett had a nice offseason and I’m expecting Pittsburgh to take a leap and pull off the upset with the Niners traveling east for an early Sunday kickoff.

All 1U

Titans AFC South +350

Dolphins win AFC East +300

Vikings to win AFC North +300

Buccaneers Under 6.5 wins

Cowboys Over 9.5 wins

Eagles Over 11.5 wins

Giants under 7.5 wins

Jets Under 9.5 wins

Packers Over 7.5 wins

Patriots under 7.5 wins

Jalen Carter DROY +750 (1U)

Quentin Johnston OROY +2200 (.5U)

Vikings Super bowl +4000(.25U)

Broncos Super bowl +4000 (.25U)