CFB Week 4

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

No. 11 USC is set to visit Ann Arbor to face No. 18 Michigan for the first time since their meeting in the 2007 Rose Bowl, which USC won 32-18. The game will take place at Michigan Stadium at 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, marking Southern Cal's inaugural Big Ten matchup.

It's still too soon to tell if the USC Trojans miss former Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, who is now with the Chicago Bears. In their first two games, USC defeated LSU 27-20 (+4) in Las Vegas and routed Utah State 48-0 on September 7. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for this Big Ten debut. Miller Moss faces the challenge of stepping in for Williams, but with offensive strategist Lincoln Riley as head coach, the transition is smoother. Two weeks ago, Moss completed 21 of 30 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown in the win against Utah State. Woody Marks contributed with 103 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, while Quinten Joyner added 84 rushing yards and two scores. Marks, a transfer from Mississippi State, rushed for 573 yards and four touchdowns last season, in addition to 203 receptions for 1,143 yards over four seasons.

The Trojans’ success often hinges on their defense. They managed a shutout against a struggling Utah State and limited LSU to just 20 points in their opener. USC is averaging 495.5 yards per game (16th overall), with 336.5 yards through the air (7th). Defensively, they are allowing 305.5 yards per game, consisting of 205.5 passing yards and only 100 rushing yards across two games, a significant improvement from last season when they surrendered 186.5 rushing yards per game (116th).

Michigan has undergone several changes this offseason, including Sherrone Moore stepping in for Jim Harbaugh and a new starting quarterback. J.J. McCarthy was highly efficient last season, throwing for 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions. However, after a surprising 31-12 home loss to Texas, Moore showed little patience for starter Davis Warren, who has thrown six interceptions in his first three starts, including three in last week’s 28-18 victory over Arkansas State (11-of-14 for 122 yards). In that game, Michigan held a 21-3 lead entering the fourth quarter and managed to secure a 10-point win. Alex Orji took the field late, throwing for 12 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 27 yards on three carries. The redshirt sophomore, noted for his speed with a 4.34 40-yard dash, will start against USC.

Michigan’s running game remains strong, and Orji's presence at quarterback should bolster it further. Kalel Mullings leads the team with 153 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Overall, Michigan's offense ranks 105th nationally (329.3 ypg) over three games, averaging just 153 passing yards per game (120th). Their defense allows 304.3 yards per game.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sport History: 1968 Mickey Mantle hits final career home run #536

1973 Willie Mays announces Retirement from baseball.

1988 Red Sox Wade Boggs is 1st player to get 200 hits for 6 consecutive seasons.

The New England Patriots announce Jacoby Brissett will remain the starter after 24-3 loss to the Jets.

Mike McDaniel said the Dolphins Raheem Mostert is expected to be out.

The Ravens signed RB Justice Hill to a two-year deal, Hill was Derrick Henry’s backup.

Justin Jefferson says he will play against the Texans after a quad injury last week.

Shohei Ohtani makes history as he becomes the first MLB player ever to get 50 homeruns and 50 stolen bases in a season.

The Atlanta Braves activate Ozzie Albies after 2 months on the IL.

Arch Manning will get his first start as Ewers recovers.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Twins at Red Sox

• Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston

• Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

⚾️ Angels at Astros

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Angels's last 8 games when playing Houston

⚾️ Giants at Royals

• San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing San Francisco

⚾️ Diamondbacks at Brewers

• Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee

• Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee

• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games at home

• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 14 games

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

🎓🏈 CFB

20% of bets and 41% of money is on ILL +285

34% of bets and 49% of money is on UNDER 55 SJSU at WSU

9.21.24

13% of bets and 30% of money is on UNDER 44 NCST at #21 CLEM

46% of bets at 65% of money is on OVER 52 ARST at #20 ISU

31% of bets and 76% of money is on BUFF +13.5

21% of bets and 62% of money is on UNDER 43 BUFF at #23 NIU

35% of bets and 50% of money is on UNDER 56.5 GT at #19 LOU

11% of bets and 53% of money is on GT +275

35% of bets and 51% of money is on UNDER 44 #11 USC at #18 MICH

26% of bets and 51% of money is on UNDER UNDER 53.5 #12 UTAH at #14 OKST

16% of bets and 37% of money is on VAN +19.5

23% of bets and 64% of money is on UNDER 52.5 VAN at #7 MIZZ

20% of bets and 42% of money is on USF +17

28% of bets and 68% of money is on BGSU +22.5

49% of bets and 82% of money is on OVER 69 GASO at #5 MISS

5% of bets and 28% of money is on ULM +44

34% of bets and 50% of money is on BYU +6.5

⚾️ MLB

30% of bets and 45% of money is on UNDER 7 SEA at TEX

59% of bets and 89% of money is on OVER 8.5 ARI at MIL

9% of bets and 24% of money is on LAA +210

61% of bets and 81% of money is on OVER 8 LAA at HOU

58% of bets and 73% of money is on OVER 8.5 SF at KC

37% of bets and 69% of money is on STL -120

🏈 NFL

27% of bets and 64% of money is on OVER 43.5 CHI at IND

64% of bets and 84% of money is on OVER 46 HOU at MIN

44% of bets and 69% of money is on UNDER 41 DEN at TB

34% of bets and 59% of money is on TEN -3

34% of bets and 58% of money is on TEN -150

43% of bets and 74% of money is on OVER 40 CAR at LV

56% of bets and 77% of money is on UNDER 42 MIA at SEA

50% of bets and 76% of money is on UNDER 43 SF at LAR

32% of bets and 55% of money is on UNDER 46.5 KC at ATL

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

Weekend Picks 🔒

LSU -23.5 | The Bruins are in for a tough game on Saturday. Their offense is ranked 110th and will likely have a hard time against LSU's average defense. LSU's passing game should perform well against the Bruins' 94th-ranked defense. The Bruins will also face a tough crowd at Tiger Stadium in hot weather and have several injuries to worry about. LSU looks ready to make a strong statement in this matchup.

Arkansas +3 | Both teams have powerful offenses but shaky defenses. Auburn allowed 448 yards to New Mexico and has turned the ball over nine times, leading to a -7 turnover ratio. Arkansas has scored 15 rushing touchdowns this season, led by Jackson and Green. While Auburn is at home, their struggles with a redshirt freshman quarterback make it hard to trust them. Arkansas’s offense should secure the win, so taking the points is a good bet.

Baltimore -1 | The Cowboys face a tough matchup against the Ravens, as their defense has struggled against the run, and Lamar Jackson is likely to exploit this weakness. Jackson’s mobility and play-extending abilities could create big plays, while the Cowboys' pass rush may struggle to contain him. On offense, Dallas will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game against Baltimore’s top-ranked run defense, which spells trouble for Prescott as the Ravens’ pass rush ranks third in sacks per game. The Cowboys' reliance on Ezekiel Elliott in the run game could prove costly against a formidable Ravens defense.