BMW Championship Preview

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Chubbs Scheffler & Zach Beier
August 21, 2024

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

After last year’s event at Olympia Fields in the Chicago suburbs, the PGA Tour is heading back to Castle Rock, Colorado for the first time since 2006 for the 2024 BMW Championship. Castle Pines Golf Club, located about 30 miles south of Denver, hosted The International from 1986 to 2006. This week, the BMW Championship is the second event in the PGA Tour’s Playoffs, featuring the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup Standings. Leading the pack are World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Colorado native Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Åberg, Sahith Theegala, two-time BMW Championship winner Patrick Cantlay, and Sungjae Im, all competing for the FedEx Cup title with just two events left.

Only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings will move on to the Tour Championship at East Lake next week, so Castle Pines is set to be full of excitement and drama. Notable players currently outside the top 30 but hoping to advance include Tommy Fleetwood (31), Matt Fitzpatrick (36), Will Zalatoris (37), Cameron Young (39), Adam Scott (41), Max Homa (43), Nick Dunlap (48), and Keegan Bradley (50).

Castle Pines Golf Club (par 72), designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1981 and renovated in 2022, now has new bunkers, tee boxes, and water hazards. At 1.2 miles above sea level, it will be the longest course in PGA Tour history at 8,130 yards. The course offers stunning views of the Rocky Mountains and features narrow fairways (about 30 yards wide), four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough, 10 water hazards, 77 sand bunkers, 400 feet of elevation change, and firm Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens.

Even though the course is over 8,100 yards, the elevation will make it play more like a 7,200-7,300-yard course. Most players should be able to reach at least three of the four par-5s in two shots, and many par-4s will only need wedges or short irons. Despite the tougher rough and added hazards, a winning score around 20-under par is expected.

Castle Pines has ten par-4s, four par-3s, and four par-5s. Since mountain golf is rare on the PGA Tour, there aren’t many courses like Castle Pines. However, Tahoe Mountain Club (Barracuda Championship), The Summit Club (2021 CJ Cup), and TPC Summerlin (Shriners Children's Open) have some similarities in elevation changes. Muirfield Village, another Nicklaus design, also shares features like thick rough and firm Bentgrass greens.

Overall, I’ll focus on top drivers who are in good form with strong approach shots and experience on Bentgrass greens. Avoiding water hazards and minimizing mistakes will be key, but that’s a challenge given the course’s difficulties. With the history of FedEx Cup playoff winners, this week should feel like a mini major championship, where the best players usually rise to the occasion.

Headlines 🚨

On This Day in Sports History: 1931 Babe Ruth becomes the first MLB player to hit 600 career home runs,

1982 Rollie Fingers becomes 1st pitcher to get 300 saves,

2020 Scottie Scheffler becomes the 12th player to shoot below a 59.

The sixers agree to a one-year deal with Guerschon Yabusele after he played a big role in France’s run to the silver medal at the Olympics.

The Orioles have placed right-hander Zach Eflin on the IL taking another starter out of their rotation.

Houston, Miami, Tokyo and San Juan will host the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

The Braves signed Gio Urshela to fill in 3B after Austin Riley’s injury.

Alabama signs the No. 2 RB Aklyin Dear in their 2025 class.

Trends 📈📉 via Oddsshark

⚾️ Orioles at Mets

  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of NY Mets's last 14 games when playing Baltimore

⚾️ Red Sox at Astros

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing Houston

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

  • Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Boston

⚾️ Pirates at Rangers

  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games at home

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

⚾️ White Sox at Giants

  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

  • San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

⚾️ Diamondbacks at Marlins

  • Arizona is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami

⚾️ Twins at Padres

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego

⚾️ Rockies at Nationals

  • Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington

  • Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington

⚾️ Reds at Blue Jays

  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road

  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 13 games at home

⚾️ Phillies at Braves

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

⚾️ Brewers at Cardinals

  • Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

  • Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games at home

⚾️ Tigers at Cubs

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games

⚾️ Rays at A’s

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home

  • Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

⚾️ Mariners at Dodgers

  • Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

  • Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games

  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle

Public Money 🤑 via VSiN at 9AMCT

⚾️ MLB

58% of bets and 79% of money is on HOU -1.5 +145

46% of bets and 67% of money is on OVER 8.5 PIT at TEX

36% of bets and 52% of money is on MIN +105

28% of bets and 69% of money is on UNDER 8.5 MIN at SD

22% of bets and 51% of money is on UNDER 8.5 COL at WSH

26% of bets and 65% of money is on UNDER 8.5 CIN at TOR

32% of bets and 68% of money is on CIN -1.5 +155

46% of bets and 69% of money is on PHI -1.5 +150

24% of bets and 44% of money is on STL -115

23% of bets and 51% of money is on DET +135

28% of bets and 71% of money is on UNDER 7.5 TB at OAK

14% of bets and 34% of money is on SEA +150

⛹️‍♀️ WNBA

48% of bets and 67% of money is on OVER 165.5 PHX at ATL

🏈 Preseason Week 3 8/22/24

54% of bets and 72% of money is on KC +105

Future Odds 🔮 via Bovada Sportsbook

BMW Championship Winner

Picks 🔒

Padres -128 | Richardson has lost 3 out of his last starts for the Twins. And Waldron for the Padres has been able to record 10 quality starts causing him to go deeper in the game. Waldron has won 4 out of his last 5.

Phillies +100 | The Phillies are heating up winning 4 out of their last 5. The Braves have been cursed with injuries and dropped 3 out of their last 5 series.

BMW Championship

Xander Schauffle +650 .5 U

Patrick Cantlay +1400 .3U

Tommy Fleetwood + 2900 .15U

Tony Finau +3300 .15U