Battle In Texas

Good morning,

Let’s dive in…

Developing Stories 📰

We’re coming down to the wire in the final 3 weeks of the college football season and the playoff picture is still wide open. Things should clear up this week as we have some major games that can decide a teams fate. Kicking it off, we have #7 LSU (-3.5) at Arkansas at 12pm. Before the tigers think about the playoff, they’ll have to take care of the Razorbacks who currently have a 5-4 record. This won’t be easy for LSU. The Razorbacks are still a top tier team despite their record. KJ Jefferson has the home field advantage, and this could have upset written all over it.

For the 2:30 pm game we have #9 Alabama (-12) at #11 Ole Miss. With an LSU loss either of these teams could still make a push for the Sec West title. Ole miss would have to win out with an LSU loss to either Arkansas or Texas A&M. Alabama must beat Ole Miss and Auburn with LSU losing both its remaining games. Ole Miss runs the ball more than any other Power 5 teams with 64.9% of their plays. The Crimson Tide’s main focus is to stop Quinshon Judkins as they have a 93.1 run defense that ranks second in the nation. Will Kiffin upset his old mentor or will the Tide keep rolling?

We have another game at 2:30 that could send a team to a New Years Six bowl. #22 UCF at #17 Tulane (-1.5). The highest ranked group of five is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s six bowl. Through 10 weeks the only ranked teams are these two. UCF has some of the best pass blockers in the nation ranking 3rd in pass blocking which QB John Rhys Plumlee takes advantage of. Tulane struggles with the rush but plays well against the pass allowing only 31 passes for 15+ yards. We could have nail biter here as Tulane is hoping to make their first New years bowl since 1939.

The first night game is #25 Washington at #6 Oregon (-13). Oregon has turned it around since their embarrassing opening game loss against Georgia. Their upcoming stretch can prove they deserve a spot in the final four playing #22 Washington this week and then #13 Utah and 6-3 Oregon State to close out the season. They need to be flawless if they want to play for the big one. Bo Nix has been one of the biggest surprises this season. After a rough start at Auburn he is now in the top 10 rankings of Power 5 quarterbacks. Michael Penix JR leads the nation with 3232 passing yards and has done a tremendous job taking care of the football with a .9% turnover-worth on his drop backs. Whichever QB plays better on Saturday will win the game.

One of the most anticipated games is #4 TCU at #18 Texas (-7). TCU is one of four remaining undefeated teams. This is their biggest test of the season as they go into Austin as underdogs. TCU’s offensive line will need to hold up against a solid Longhorn defensive front. Fortunately for the Horned Frogs, they have top-20 Power 5 grades in both pass blocking and run blocking. If that unit does its job, one of college football’s most lethal connections max Duggan and Quentin Johnston should find success. The Longhorns have the fourth-best pass-rush win rate in the Power 5 while also possessing the third-lowest average depth of tackle in the run game. They are lead by top ranked QB Quinn Ewers and RB Bijon Robinson. If TCU wins, it would be poised to make the first playoff in school history, where it’ll compete to win its first national championship in 84 years.

Headlines 🚨

MLB free agency begins;

• Degrom on the move - he reached out personally to the Rangers

• Verlander out in Houston

• Turner looks to be headed to Philly

• Kershaw to stay in LA

The Panthers get the W over division rival Falcons

This weeks London game is the Seattle Seahawks vs The Tampa Bay Bucaneers

This day in Sports History: 1987 Red Sox starter Roger Clemens wins back-to-back Cy Young Awards.

1996 Atlanta Braves pitcher John Smoltz wins NL Cy Young

Nike expected to drop Kyrie Irving as a client

Justin Verlander Declines 25M Astros option becomes free agent

Trends 📈📉 (sources: VSiN and oddshark)

NBA Nov. 11

• Orlando is 7-1 ATS L8 games at home

• Denver is 6-1 SU L7 games

• Toronto is 4-1 ATS L5 games on the road

• Cleveland is 8-2 ATS L10 games

• Sacramento is 5-1 ATS L6 games on the road

• The total has gone over in 4 of Lakers L6 games

NFL Week 10

• Seattle is 5-1 ATS L6 games

• Tennessee is 5-0 ATS L5 games

• Miami is 9-1 SU L10 games at home

• NY Giants is 4-1 ATS L5 games

• Dallas is 6-1 ATS L7 games

• Arizona is 10-4 ATS L14 games on the road

• San Francisco is 6-1 ATS L7 games at home

NFL BYE WEEK TRENDS:

• Play AGAINST home teams coming out of their bye week against nonconference opponents. (Record: 16-6 SU and 16-5-1 ATS since ’15, 76.2%, + 10.5 Units, 47.7% R.O.I., Grade 68) **Play AGAINST NYG, PIT, SF**

• Play AGAINST HOME UNDERDOGS coming out of their bye week. (Record: 32-11 SU and 27-15-1 ATS since ’99, 64.3%, + 10.5 Units, 24.4% R.O.I., Grade 62) **Play AGAINST PIT**

• Play OVER the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 24-12-1 since ’10, 66.7%, + 10.8 Units, 29.2% R.O.I., Grade 62) **Play ON over DEN/TEN, HOU/NYG**

• Play on TEAMS coming off their bye week and FACING THE CHARGERS. (Record: 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS since ’08, 100%, + 13 Units, 100% R.O.I., Grade 75) **Play ON SF**

CLEVELAND: Post-bye week game: Nov. 13 at Miami

• Cleveland is 3-4 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games

• The Browns are 9-3 OVER the total in their last 12 road post-bye week games

DALLAS: Post-bye week game: Nov. 13 at Green Bay

• Dallas is on a 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS run in post-bye week games, including three straight wins

• The Cowboys are 14-3 OVER the total in post-bye week games since ’05 but did go UNDER last year

DENVER: Post-bye week game: Nov. 13 at Tennessee

• Denver has gone 17-6 SU and 18-5 ATS in post-bye week games since ‘00

• The Broncos are on an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS surge in post-bye week road games

Public Money 🤑

🏈 %36 of bets and %81 of money is on UNDER 43.5 MIN at BUF

🏈 %54 of bets and %74 of money is on OVER 41 HOU at NYG

🏈 %62 of bets and %83 of money is on OVER 48.5 DET at CHI

🏈 %22 of bets and %43 of money is on GB +5

🏈 %37 of bets and %67 of money is on UNDER 43 DAL at GB

🏈 %31 of bets and %74 of money is on UNDER 40.5 LAR at ARI

🏈 %43 of bets and %72 of money is on UNDER 45.5 LAC at SF

🏈 %44 of bets and %72 of money is on OVER 63 Georgia Southern at ULL

🏈 %43 of bets and %84 of money is on UCONN +14

🏈 %59 of bets and %81 of money is on OVER 72.5 Washington at Oregon

🏈 %29 of bets and %49 of money is on Texas -7

🏀 %34 of bets and %58 of money is on MIN +4.5

🏀 %29 of bets and %55 of money is on CLE +2

🏀 %63 of bets and %83 of money is on OVER 228.5 CLE at GS

🏒 %65 of bets and %89 of money is on OVER 6.5 PIT at TOR

🏒 %41 of bets and %61 of money is on PIT +130

Future Odds 🔮

Injury Report 🏥

(LAL) Lebron James - Doubtful

(LAL) Anthony Davis - Probable

(MIL) Giannis Antetokounmpo - Out

(MIL) Jrue Holiday - Out

(ORL) Paolo Banchero - Questionable / Ankle

(PHO) Chris Paul - Questionable / Heel

(ARI) Kyler Murray - Questionable / Hamstring

(BUF) Josh Allen - Non Participant / Right Elbow

(DAL) Ezekiel Elliot - Limited / Knee

(LV) Hunter Renfroe - IR / Ribs & Hamstring

(LV) Darren Waller - IR / Hamstring

(LAC) Keenan Allen - Non Participant / Hamstring

(LAR) Matthew Stafford - Non Participant / Concussion

(PIT) Chris Boswell - IR / Groin

Weekend Picks 🔒

Tennessee -20.5

• I’m laying it with the Volunteers. Coming off their first loss of the season. They’re back at home against a 4-5 Missouri. Defense is averaging 21.5 PPG. Missouri likes to run the ball and the vols have a good run defense. Tennessee has covered 7 of 10 when laying points.

LA Tech/UTSA over 68

• I think this number is too low. LA tech is a consistent offense. Averaging 9 yards per pass attempt. Neither team has a good defense and both this offense run a fast pace both top 25. I think this should be in the 70s.

Seattle +3

• The Bucs have shown little to be proud of lately. The only upside Tom Brady has had the past month was his last minute come back against the Rams last week. Geno Smith continues to amaze as the Seahawks continue to win although coming into the season projected as one of the worst teams. This game will be played in Germany - Tom has played overseas three times and has been very successful, but that was when he was young and dominating with the Patriots. With the Bucs offensive struggles and with everything Tom is dealing with off the field, I’m rolling with the red hot Seahawks this Sunday.